Quantitative assessment of landslide hazard along transportation lines using historical records |
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| Authors: | Pankaj Jaiswal Cees J van Westen Victor Jetten |
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| Institution: | (1) Geological Survey of India, Bandlaguda, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India;(2) ITC, University of Twente, Hengelosestraat 99, 7500 AA Enschede, The Netherlands |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, a quantitative landslide hazard model is presented for transportation lines, with an example for a road and
railroad alignment, in parts of Nilgiri hills in southern India. The data required for the hazard assessment were obtained
from historical records available for a 21-year period from 1987 to 2007. A total of 901 landslides from cut slopes along
the railroad and road alignment were included in the inventory. The landslides were grouped into three magnitude classes based
on the landslide type, volume, scar depth, and run-out distance. To calculate landslide hazard, we estimated the total number
of individual landslides per kilometer of the (rail) road for different return periods, based on the relationship between
past landslides (recorded in our database) and triggering events. These were multiplied by the probability that the landslides
belong to a given magnitude class. This gives the hazard for a given return period expressed as the number of landslides of
a given magnitude class per kilometer of (rail) road. The relationship between the total number of landslides and the return
period was established using a Gumbel distribution model, and the probability of landslide magnitude was obtained from frequency–volume
statistics. The results of the analysis indicate that the total number of landslides, from 1- to 50-year return period, varies
from 56 to 197 along the railroad and from 14 to 82 along the road. In total, 18 hazard scenarios were generated using the
three magnitude classes and six return periods (1, 3, 5, 15, 25, and 50 years). The hazard scenarios derived from the model
form the basis for future direct and indirect landslide risk analysis along the transportation lines. The model was validated
with landslides that occurred in the year 2009. |
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