| 干旱与强震活动关系的研究实例 |
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| 引用本文： | 叶民权.干旱与强震活动关系的研究实例[J].地震学报,1990,12(1):103-111. |
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| 作者姓名： | 叶民权 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局 |
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| 摘 要： | 震前干旱与强烈地震之间的关系,已日益为地震界所重视.本文通过新疆柯坪——乌恰地区历年降水量与Ms6.0强震关系的研究发现,该地区Ms6.0地震大部分(85.7%)是在震前1——2年的干旱背景下发生的;震级随旱区面积大小而增减.运用鉴定震兆信息量R值方法,对该地区降水因子预报地震的预报效能进行评定,效果良好.本文还对1985年乌恰7.4级大震震前的降水异常特征进行了讨论. 研究表明,震前1——3年大面积的干旱与强烈地震的发生有着某种内在的联系.旱震关系,是强震中期综合预报的依据之一.
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| 关 键 词： | 干旱 强震活动 旱震 面积 降水量 |
A TYPICAL CASE FOR THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DROUGHT AND STRONG SEISMIC ACTIVITY |
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| Abstract: | The relationship between pre-shock drought and strong seismic activity has extensively drawn people's attention. From the relationship between the precipitation and the study ot strong seismic activity (Ms6) in the Keping - Wuqia region,we have found that 85.7% of total events occurred under the drought background of one to two years prior to the shocks and the magnitude varied with the size of drought region. In this paper we also discuss the characteristics of precipitation anomaly before the great Wuqia earthquake (M7.4) of 1985,esiimating the efficiency of precipitation factor in earthquake prediction by using the .R-value method of appraising precursory information with good effect.The result shows there is a certain inherent relation between the drought in a large area one to three years prior to the event and the magnitude of strong earthquake. This relationship between drought and earthquake can be considered as one of the bases in medium-term synthetic prediction of strong earthquakes. |
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