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Analysis of Orbital Characteristics and Evolution of Near-Earth Asteroids (10302) 1989 ML and (4660) Nereus
Institution:1. Purple Mountain Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210023;2. School of Astronomy and Space Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026;3. National Basic Discipline Public Science Data Center, Beijing 100190
Abstract:Near-Earth asteroids (10302) 1989 ML and (4660) Nereus have attracted much attention as candidates for the next generation of deep space explorations. In the study, the maximum Lyapunov exponent (MLE) and MEGNO (Mean Exponential Growth factor of Nearby Orbits) index are calculated after considering the effects of major objects in the Solar system, and the stabilities of these two asteroids are discussed. For each asteroid, 1000 clonal particles consistent with the observational uncertainties are generated from a multivariate normal distribution. Statistical results display probably emerging regions of each asteroid within 0.1 million years, and provide distributions of occurrence times in the phase space of semi-major axis versus eccentricity. We estimate the probability of close encounters and collisions between the asteroid and Earth or other planets. Furthermore, secular resonances, Kozai resonance, and mean motion resonances are analyzed for nominal orbits of the two asteroids. We conclude that 1989 ML is in the region dominated by mean motion resonances with terrestrial planets. The probability of close encounters with them is relatively small, therefore its orbit is relatively stable. Nereus is located in a region that can have close-encounters with the Earth, and it has an extremely unstable orbit.
Keywords:Celestial mechanics  Planets and satellites: dynamical evolution and stability  minor planets  asteroids: individual: (10302) 1989 ML  (4660) Nereus
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