Assessment of <Emphasis Type="Italic">pre-crisis</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">syn-crisis</Emphasis> seismic hazard at Campi Flegrei and Mt. Vesuvius volcanoes,Campania, southern Italy |
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Authors: | Vincenzo Convertito Aldo Zollo |
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Institution: | 1.Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Vesuviano (INGV),Naples,Italy;2.Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche,Università di Napoli Federico II,Naples,Italy |
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Abstract: | In this study, we address the issue of short-term to medium-term probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for two volcanic areas,
Campi Flegrei caldera and Mt. Vesuvius in the Campania region of southern Italy. Two different phases of the volcanic activity
are considered. The first, which we term the pre-crisis phase, concerns the present quiescent state of the volcanoes that is characterized by low-to-moderate seismicity. The second
phase, syn-crisis, concerns the unrest phase that can potentially lead to eruption. For the Campi Flegrei case study, we analyzed the pattern
of seismicity during the 1982–1984 ground uplift episode (bradyseism). For Mt. Vesuvius, two different time-evolutionary models
for seismicity were adopted, corresponding to different ways in which the volcano might erupt. We performed a site-specific
analysis, linked with the hazard map, to investigate the effects of input parameters, in terms of source geometry, mean activity
rate, periods of data collection, and return periods, for the syn-crisis phase. The analysis in the present study of the pre-crisis phase allowed a comparison of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the two study areas with those provided
in the Italian national hazard map. For the Mt. Vesuvius area in particular, the results show that the hazard can be greater
than that reported in the national hazard map when information at a local scale is used. For the syn-crisis phase, the main result is that the data recorded during the early months of the unrest phase are substantially representative
of the seismic hazard during the whole duration of the crisis. |
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