The Evolution of Giant Oil Field Production Behavior |
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| Authors: | Mikael Höök Bengt Söderbergh Kristofer Jakobsson Kjell Aleklett |
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| Institution: | (1) Global Energy Systems, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala University, Box 535, 751 21 Uppsala, Sweden |
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| Abstract: | The giant oil fields of the world are only a small fraction of the total number of fields, but their importance is huge. Over
50% of the world’s oil production came from giants by 2005 and more than half of the world’s ultimate reserves are found in
giants. Based on this, it is reasonable to assume that the future development of the giant oil fields will have a significant
impact on the world oil supply. In order to better understand the giant fields and their future behavior, one must first understand
their history. This study has used a comprehensive database on giant oil fields in order to determine their typical parameters,
such as the average decline rate and life-times of giants. The evolution of giant oil field behavior has been investigated
to better understand future behavior. One conclusion is that new technology and production methods have generally led to high
depletion rates and rapid decline. The historical trend points towards high decline rates of fields currently on plateau production.
The peak production generally occurs before half the ultimate reserves have been produced in giant oil fields. A strong correlation
between depletion-at-peak and average decline rate is also found, verifying that high depletion rate leads to rapid decline.
Our result also implies that depletion analysis can be used to rule out unrealistic production expectations from a known reserve,
or to connect an estimated production level to a needed reserve base. |
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| Keywords: | Giant oil fields field behavior peak oil depletion |
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