Global warming, rising sea level, and growing risk of cholera incidence: a review of the literature and evidence |
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| Authors: | René J Borroto |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Environmental Studies, Institute of Tropical Geography, Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment, Cuba;(2) Present address: Calle 11 número 514 entre D y E, Vedado, CP, 10400 La Habana, Cuba |
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| Abstract: | The survival of Vibrio cholerae -the pathogen agent of cholera- in aquatic environments is linked to both abiotic and biotic
ecological factors, which are likely to be influenced by global climate changes and the resulting rise in sea level. Yet little
attention has been paid to the possible impacts of these predicted global environmental changes on water-borne diseases such
as cholera. The probable ecological mechanisms to explain why cholera may increase if predicted global warming and sea level
rise do occur have, as yet, not been addressed. The objective of this paper is to argue the hypothesis that the survival of
Vibrio cholerae in aquatic environments may be favoured by global warming and flooding of low-lying coastal areas due to rising
sea level. Those changes may enhance primary and secondary transmission of cholera in developing nations, particularly among
populations settled in low-lying coastal areas of tropical regions. Primary transmission is also likely to increase in developed
nations, mainly among populations living in low-lying coastal areas of subtropical and temperate regions, where new foci of
hypoendemic cholera may appear. Nevertheless, if current high levels of hygienic standards in developed nations are relaxed,
secondary transmission of cholera may also increase. The prediction and assessment of the potential impact of global climate
change on cholera epidemic and endemic potential and its geographical distribution should consider the role of the aquatic
reservoirs of Vibrio cholerae in the transmission and endemicity of cholera. The geographical distribution of cholera depends
not only on social and cultural factors, but also on ecological variables. On the other hand, global climate changes may cause
different impacts in different ecosystems and geographical landscapes. Hence it would be useful to calculate and map future
cholera incidence rates for areas defined by natural boundaries, such as ecosystems and geographical landscapes, in search
of space-time associations between cholera incidence rates and environmental changes.
This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. |
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| Keywords: | cholera ecology global warming Vibrio cholerae |
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