| 滇西南地区五年内大震形势预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 闻满华.滇西南地区五年内大震形势预测[J].地震,1994(5):84-91. |
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| 作者姓名： | 闻满华 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南省地震局 中国昆明 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文采用极值理论、线性预测和最大熵谱分析三种不同的概率统计预报方法，从不同的角度对滇西南地区地震活动进行研究，得到滇西南５年内将有１次６．５－６．９级地震活动，１９９２年有６．０－６．４级发震可能的中短期预报结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 极值理论 线性预测 地震预报 大震 |
PREDICTION OF LARGE EARTHQUAKE TENDENCY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN YUNNAN REGION IN FIVE YEARS |
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| Wen Manhua.PREDICTION OF LARGE EARTHQUAKE TENDENCY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN YUNNAN REGION IN FIVE YEARS[J].Earthquake,1994(5):84-91. |
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| Authors: | Wen Manhua |
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| Institution: | Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province |
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| Abstract: | In this paper the author adopted three prediction methods of probabilistic statistics, i.e. theory of extreme value, linear forecast and maximum entropy spectra, which are used to study the earthquake occurrence in the southwestern Yunnan region from several sides, And the paper gives the result of the medium-and short-term prediction that one earthquake with M=6.5-6.9 may occur in the southwestern Yunnan region and earthquake with M =6.0-6.4 may occur in 1992. |
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| Keywords: | Theory of extreme value Linear forecas t Maximum entropy spectra |
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