| 基于RMF技术的远洋船舶定量风险评估方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 余建星,田佳,谭振东.基于RMF技术的远洋船舶定量风险评估方法研究[J].海洋技术,2005,24(4):107-111. |
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| 作者姓名： | 余建星 田佳 谭振东 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津大学建筑工程学院,天津,300072 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目（59979018）;教育部博士点基金（20030056045）. |
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| 摘 要： | 在远洋船舶运输中，设备失效是导致各类事故的一个重要因素。文中引人RMF技术，将其应用到远洋船队的定量风险评估中，以及时查找并消除设备方面的事故隐患。首先找出潜在的风险事件及相关风险因素，然后运用模糊综合评判方法和事故损失综合评估理论对设备风险事件的模糊概率和损失程度后果进行量化，最后依据风险评价结果对需要控制的风险源给出控制措施。实例分析亦表明，运用RMF技术能对远洋船舶的各类设备及属具实施科学的风险管理。
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| 关 键 词： | 风险 风险管理 RMF 模糊综合评判 损失程度综合评估 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-2029（2005）04-0107-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-03-12 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年3月12日 |
The Research on the Quantitative Risk Assessment of the Ocean Shipping Based on the RMF Technique |
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| YU Jian-xing,TIAN Jia,TAN Zhen-dong.The Research on the Quantitative Risk Assessment of the Ocean Shipping Based on the RMF Technique[J].Ocean Technology,2005,24(4):107-111. |
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| Authors: | YU Jian-xing TIAN Jia TAN Zhen-dong |
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| Institution: | School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072 |
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| Abstract: | Facility malfunction is one of the main factors contributing to the accident during the ocean shipping. The purpose of this paper is to apply the RMF technique to the quantitative risk assessment of the ocean shipping so as to help find and thereby get rid of the risk source. Firstly find the latent risk events as well as the risk factors. Then the fuzzy frequency of each risk event is able to quantify by using the general fuzzy assessment, and a new method is developed to calculating the comprehensive loss of the potential accident. Based on the result of the risk appraisal, risk measures are provided for the risk source that should be controlled. It also can be concluded from the typical example that scientific risk management of the facilities on the ship can be achieved by using the RMF technique. |
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| Keywords: | risk risk management RMF general fuzzy assessment comprehensive assessment of the loss |
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