Assessing Mongolian snow disaster risk using livestock and satellite data |
| |
| Authors: | K Tachiiri M Shinoda B Klinkenberg Y Morinaga |
| |
| Institution: | aDepartment of Geography, The University of British Columbia, 1984 West Mall, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z2;bArid Land Research Center, Tottori University, Hamasaka 1390, Tottori 680-0001, Japan;cInstitute of Arid Asian Studies, Meiji University, 1-9-1 Eifuku, Suginami-ku, Tokyo 168-8555, Japan;dSchool of Commerce, Meiji University, 1-9-1 Eifuku, Suginami-ku, Tokyo 168-8555, Japan |
| |
| Abstract: | In Mongolia, several record-breaking disastrous dzuds (mass livestock loss directly induced by harsh winter conditions but often influenced by drought in the previous summer) occurred from 1999 to 2003. To understand the mechanism of this climatic disaster, we conducted a tree regression analysis. The predictor variables included two indices developed from remote sensing data—the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)—as well as the previous year's livestock numbers and mortality rates. According to the model, serious livestock mortality was associated with low NDVI values (i.e., poor vegetation) in August of the previous year, high SWE values (i.e., significant snow accumulation) in December of the previous year, a high previous year's mortality, and high previous year's livestock population. This result suggests that for dzud risk assessment, we need to monitor snowfall in winter, the vegetation condition in the previous summer, and the density and health condition of the livestock. The tree-based model developed in this study is effective only for a white dzud (deep snow), the most common type of dzud. The large cross-validation error indicates that more data are needed before using the model in order to make predictions. |
| |
| Keywords: | Drought Dzud Mongolia NDVI Regression tree Snow Water Equivalent |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
