| 陇东伏旱的气候变化及预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴爱敏,董安详,郭江勇.陇东伏旱的气候变化及预报[J].甘肃气象,2004,22(2):57-61. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴爱敏 董安详 郭江勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 庆阳市气象局,甘肃,庆阳,745000;中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃,兰州,730020 |
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| 基金项目： | 甘肃省科技厅《西北重大干旱事件的物理成因研究》项目(GS012-A45-118)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用陇东伏期降水量和蒸发量两要素，定义了伏旱指数来定量表达伏旱，通过对陇东15县(区)伏期降水和伏旱指数的分析，探讨了陇东伏旱的气候特征。对陇东伏期的500hPa平均形势，早年及多雨年环流特征进行分析，找出早年、多雨年的主要差异。通过500hPa高度场、太平洋海温与伏旱的相关性，探讨影响陇东伏旱的成因。最后建立了伏旱的预测模型，并进行了预报，经评定效果良好。
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| 关 键 词： | 伏旱指数 气候特征 成因 预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-7639(2004)-02-0057-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年2月27日 |
The Climate Change and Forecast of Drought during July and August in Longdong Region |
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| WU Ai-min,DONG An-xiang,GUO Jiang-yong.The Climate Change and Forecast of Drought during July and August in Longdong Region[J].Gansu Meteorology,2004,22(2):57-61. |
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| Authors: | WU Ai-min DONG An-xiang GUO Jiang-yong |
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| Institution: | WU Ai-min~1,DONG An-xiang~2,GUO Jiang-yong~1 |
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| Abstract: | The drought index is defined by precipitation and evaporation in Longdong region during July and August in this paper,and it is used to denote drought.The drought climate feature is discussed by analyzing its precipitation and the drought index of 15 stations,and it is found 500hPa mean situation is different in drought and rainy year.The cause of drought is also discussed by the correlation between drought and Pacific temperature and 500hPa height feild ,and finally the forecast model has been established. |
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| Keywords: | the drought index climate feature cause forecast |
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