| 气候与土地利用变化对涟水流域径流的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯畅,毛德华,周慧,曹艳敏,胡光伟.气候与土地利用变化对涟水流域径流的影响[J].冰川冻土,2017,39(2):395-406. |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯畅 毛德华 周慧 曹艳敏 胡光伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院,湖南长沙,410081;湖南省水文水资源勘测局,湖南长沙,410007;湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院,湖南长沙410081;长沙市水务局,湖南长沙410013;湖南工业大学建筑与城乡规划学院,湖南株洲,412007 |
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| 基金项目： | 湖南省教育厅重点项目，湖南省水利科技重大项目，湖南省自然科学基金重点项目，湖南省重点学科建设项目，湖南省研究生科研创新项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 以涟水流域为研究对象,选用1990年、2000年、2010年三期土地利用数据资料,将1985-2014年30 a气象条件相应划分为1985-1994年、1995-2004年、2005-2014年三段气象背景时期,并组合细分为7种模拟情景,应用SWAT分布式水文模型模拟不同情景下的径流量,探讨气候和土地利用变化对流域径流的影响。利用PSO粒子群优化算法,以克林效率系数KGE为目标函数,通过湘乡站实测径流数据校准模型参数。运用p-factor、r-factor评价模拟的不确定性,采用相关系数R2、纳什效率系数NS和偏差百分比PBIAS评价模型模拟效果,评价结果表明不同土地利用情景下,校准期和验证期的模拟效果均达到可信程度,模拟的不确定性较小。组合情景间模拟分析结果表明,1985-2014年30 a间,气候变化使涟水流域径流不断减少,土地利用变化使径流有所增加,年径流深总体呈现下降趋势。气候变化对涟水流域径流变化的影响贡献率在逐渐上升,从71.4%上升到了86.3%。土地利用变化对径流变化的影响贡献率则相应下降,从28.6%降低至13.7%。因此,在气候变化背景下,科学管理流域水资源还需要充分考虑流域土地资源空间配置结构和利用方式。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 土地利用变化 SWAT分布式水文模型 PSO算法 克林效率系数KGE 不确定性分析 涟水流域 |
Impacts of climate and land use changes on runoff in the Lianshui basin |
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| Abstract: | Three land utilization data sets of 1990,2000 and 2010 in the Lianshui basin have been chosen,and meteorological data from 1985 through 2014 have been divided into 1985-1994,1995-2004 and 2005-2014 meteorological background phases,which is convenient to set up seven combination simulation scenarios applied in the paper.SWAT,a distributed runoff model,is used to simulate runoff in different scenarios.The purpose of this paper is to study how the climate,land-utilization and land-cover changes in the Lianshui basin affects the runoff in the basin.PSO algorithm is used to calibrate model parameters by Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient (KGE),as well as by observed data in Xiangxiang station.Furthermore,p-factor,r-factor,correlation coefficient (R2),Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS) and Percent bias (PBIAS) are selected to evaluate the uncertainty and accuracy of the simulation.The evaluation results indicated that the simulated accuracy and uncertainty,under different land utilization scenarios,were credible both in the calibration and validation phases.Consequently,by analytic comparison of the simulated values in different scenarios,it is clear that during 1985 to 2014,climate change had decreased basin runoff while land utilization change had increased basin runoff,but annual total runoff depth had decreased on the whole.Climate change had influenced the surface hydrology more significantly than land utilization change,thereby the contribution rate of climate change increased from 71.4％ to 86.3％.At the same time,the contribution rate of land utilization change decreased from 28.6％ to 13.7％.Therefore,under the background of local climate change,optimizing the spatial structure of land resources is one of the ways to scientific management of water resources in the basin. |
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| Keywords: | climate change land utilization change SWAT distributed hydrological model PSO algorithm Kling-Gupta efficiency uncertainty analysis Lianshui basin |
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