Performance evaluation of a physically based model for shallow landslide prediction |
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| Authors: | Jui-Yi Ho Kwan Tun Lee |
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| Institution: | 1.National Applied Research Laboratories,Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute,Taipei,Taiwan;2.Department of River & Harbor Engineering,National Taiwan Ocean University,Keelung,Taiwan |
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| Abstract: | Evaluating the performance of a physically based model for landslide prediction was conducted in this study. The model was developed based on the basis of the infinite slope instability analysis and TOPMODEL for saturated water level estimation, which enabled to predict the location and time of occurrence of shallow landslides. Field data from 2008 to 2013 in two areas vulnerable to landslide in Taiwan were collected to test the applicability of the model for landslide prediction. Three indexes including the probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), and threat score (TS) were adopted to assess the advantages and disadvantages of the model. The results indicated that the POD for the landslide prediction by using the proposed model was 1.00, the FAR was lower than 0.25, and the overall TS value was higher than 0.75. It is promising to apply the proposed model for landslide early warnings to reduce the loss of life and property. |
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