| 南海东北部台风潮的数值后报及极值增水估计 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁文兰,方国洪.南海东北部台风潮的数值后报及极值增水估计[J].海洋湖沼通报,1991(1):1-9. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁文兰 方国洪 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院海洋研究所，中国科学院海洋研究所，中国科学院海洋研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院海洋研究所调查研究报告第1814号本工作得到中国科学院原合同局资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 本研究对近40年来影响南海东北部陆架海区的28次台风引起的风暴潮进行了数值后报,其中8个过程的沿岸后报增水值与实测值进行了比较,表明后报值与实测值符合良好,90%以上的最大增水值偏差在30厘米以下。为了得出本海区多年一遇的台风增水极值,在后报台风路径密集处选择了9个不同水深点,对每点取出各次台风下的最大增水值,然后用Weibull分布进行拟合,得出了各点的极值分布。
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| 关 键 词： | 台风 风暴潮 数值后报 极值 南海 |
NUMERICAL HINDCAST AND EXTREME HIGH WATER ESTIMATION OF TYPHOON SURGES IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA |
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| Ding Wenlan Fang Guohong Li Chunyan.NUMERICAL HINDCAST AND EXTREME HIGH WATER ESTIMATION OF TYPHOON SURGES IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA[J].Transaction of Oceanology and Limnology,1991(1):1-9. |
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| Authors: | Ding Wenlan Fang Guohong Li Chunyan |
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| Abstract: | In this study we numerically hindcast storm surges induced by 28 typhoons attacking the northeast part of the continental shelf region of the South China Sea in the past 40 years. The hindcasted sea-surface elevations of 8 typhoon processes are compared with those observed at some coastal tidal stations and they are found to be in good agreement. In more than ninty percent of the cases the deviations of the heights of the hindcasted surge peaks from the observed ones are less than 30 cm. Nine points with different water depths (ranging from 2(?) m to 1000m) in the area with dense typhoon paths are selected and the maximum sea-surface heights during each typhoon process at these points are utilized to fit the Weibull exteme value distribution. The extreme high levels of storm surges for various return periods are thus evaluated. |
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| Keywords: | typhoon-generated surge numerical hindcasting extreme value distribution |
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