| 中国沿岸现代海平面变化及未来趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 于道永.中国沿岸现代海平面变化及未来趋势分析[J].海洋预报,1996(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 于道永 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质科学院海平面观测站 |
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| 基金项目： | “八五”国家科技攻关项目,地矿部86046项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文用线性回归分析方法，分１９８５年以前和１９９２年以前两个时段，对我国沿岸２５个验潮站近百年来的海平面资料进行了系统分析，计算了两个时段相对海平面变化的年速率和平均海面高度，论述了海平面变化的主要控制因素，并对未来海平面变化趋势进行了预测。计算结果表明，近百年来我国沿岸相对海平面在总体上不但持续上升，而且近年来上升速率普遍加快；根据海平面变化的主要控制因素变化趋向，预计到下世纪中叶前后，全球性海平面大幅度上升的可能性不大，我国沿岸区域性海乎面平均上升幅度不超过１５ｃｍ，不同岸段因地壳升降差异性大而有较大差别。
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| 关 键 词： | 相对海平面，地壳升降 |
STUDY ON THE CHANGE AND FUTURE TREND OFMODERN SEA LEVEL OVER CHINA COAST |
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| Yu Daoyong.STUDY ON THE CHANGE AND FUTURE TREND OFMODERN SEA LEVEL OVER CHINA COAST[J].Marine Forecasts,1996(2). |
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| Authors: | Yu Daoyong |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the data of the sea level from 25 stations within about a century was collected. These data were divided into two groups according to the time periods, one group was within years before 1985, the other before 1992. A linear regression analysis was used. The relativechanges in velocity and height of sea level per year during these two periods were calculated.The main factors to affect sea level were discussed and the change trend of sea level in the future was forecasted. The results show that over China coast, not only relative sea level continued to rise at total during recent century, but also the rising velocity was commonly quickenedin recent years. Based on the change trend of main factors controlling the change of sea level,we believe that it is impossible for global sea level to rise by a big margin by the middle of nextcentury, the regional rising margin of sea level over China coast will not exceed 15cm, and indifferent regions, it is different because of the disparity of the falling and rising of the earthcrust. |
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| Keywords: | Relative sea level Falling and rising of the earth crust |
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