| Analogue Correction Method of Errors by Combining Statistical and Dynamical Methods |
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| 作者姓名： | REN Hongli CHOU Jifan |
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| 作者单位： | Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration，College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University，Beijing 100081 College of Atmospheric Sciences，Lanzhou University，Lanzhou 73000，Lanzhou 73000 |
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| 摘 要： | Based on the atmospheric analogy principle, the inverse problem that the information of historical analogue data is utilized to estimate model errors is put forward and a method of analogue correction of errors (ACE) of model is developed in this paper. The ACE can combine effectively statistical and dynamical methods, and need not change the current numerical prediction models. The new method not only adequately utilizes dynamical achievements but also can reasonably absorb the information of a great many analogues in historical data in order to reduce model errors and improve forecast skill. Furthermore, the ACE may identify specific historical data for the solution of the inverse problem in terms of the particularity of current forecast. The qualitative analyses show that the ACE is theoretically equivalent to the principle of the previous analogue-dynamical model, but need not rebuild the complicated analogue-deviation model, so has better feasibility and operational foreground. Moreover, under the ideal situations, when numerical models or historical analogues are perfect, the forecast of the ACE would transform into the forecast of dynamical or statistical method, respectively.
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| 关 键 词： | 反转法 数值预报 天气预报 动力模型 偏差 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006/4/30 0:00:00 |
Analogue Correction Method of Errors by Combining Statistical and Dynamical Methods |
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| REN Hongli,CHOU Jifan.Analogue Correction Method of Errors by Combining Statistical and Dynamical Methods[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2006,20(3):367-373. |
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| Authors: | REN Hongli CHOU Jifan |
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| Institution: | [1]Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081 [2]College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 73000 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the atmospheric analogy principle, the inverse problem that the information of historical analogue data is utilized to estimate model errors is put forward and a method of analogue correction of errors (ACE) of model is developed in this paper. The ACE can combine effectively statistical and dynamical methods, and need not change the current numerical prediction models. The new method not only adequately utilizes dynamical achievements but also can reasonably absorb the information of a great many analogues in historical data in order to reduce model errors and improve forecast skill. Furthermore, the ACE may identify specific historical data for the solution of the inverse problem in terms of the particularity of current forecast. The qualitative analyses show that the ACE is theoretically equivalent to the principle of the previous analogue-dynamical model, but need not rebuild the complicated analogue-deviation model, so has better feasibility and operational foreground. Moreover, under the ideal situations, when numerical models or historical analogues are perfect, the forecast of the ACE would transform into the forecast of dynamical or statistical method, respectively. |
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| Keywords: | combination of statistical and dynamical methods inverse problem numerical prediction analogue correction of errors (ACE) |
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