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| 我国极端气温指数的时空变化与分区研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 向旬,王冀,王绪鑫,徐琪.我国极端气温指数的时空变化与分区研究[J].气象,2008,34(9):73-80. |
| 作者姓名： | 向旬 王冀 王绪鑫 徐琪 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京大学大气科学系,南京,210093;鞍山市气象台 2. 南京信息工程大学 3. 鞍山市气象台 4. 民航江苏空中交通管理分局 |
| 摘 要： | 利用1961-2000年全国550个台站的逐日最高气温、最低气温资料计算出热浪指数和暖夜指数并对两个指数分别进行时空变化分析,结果表明极端气温指数的前2种模态基本代表了该指数的空间分布特征.热浪指数和暖夜指数的第一特征向量的荷栽场空间分布基本一致,全区为一致的增加和减少趋势,并且在时间变化上存在着明显年际和年代际变化特征.利用REOF和CAST聚类分析相结合的方法对热浪指数和暖夜指数进行分区,将全国热浪指数和暖夜指数分剐分成11个和10个变化区.经过验证发现该方法既克服了前者确定荷载值界限的主观性,又避免了后者选择气候中心的不确定性,使区划结果更具有客观性. |
| 关 键 词： | 极端气温指数 聚类统计检验 旋转主分量分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007/12/18 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 5/4/2008 12:00:00 AM |
Research of Temporal-Spatial Variation and Distribution of Extreme Temperatures Index in China |
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| Xiang Xun,Wang Ji,Wang Xuxin and Xu Qi.Research of Temporal-Spatial Variation and Distribution of Extreme Temperatures Index in China[J].Meteorological Monthly,2008,34(9):73-80. | |
| Authors: | Xiang Xun Wang Ji Wang Xuxin and Xu Qi |
| Abstract: | Using the daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature data from 550 statio ns for the period 1960-2000, the heat wave days index (HWDI) and the warm night index (Tn90) are calculated and their temporal and spatial variation are analyze d. The first two modes are able to represent the spatial distribution characteri stics. The spatial distribution of first eigenvector of the two indexes is gener ally similar, with the same increase and decrease trend. Their inter annual and inter decadal variability in temporal characteristic is remarkable. The change s of heat index and warm night index can be divided into 11 and 10 districts by using REOF and CAST Clustering Analysis Method, which can overcome the subjectivity of the boun dary of the load values by REOF and the uncertainty of climate center by CAST an d make the division more objective. |
| Keywords: | extreme temperatures index clustering statistical test rotary principal compo nent analysis |
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