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| 深圳市流感就诊率季节特征及夏季流感就诊率气象预报模型 | |
| 引用本文： | 翟红楠,张莉,孙石阳,覃军,陈正洪.深圳市流感就诊率季节特征及夏季流感就诊率气象预报模型[J].气象科技,2009,37(6):709-712. |
| 作者姓名： | 翟红楠 张莉 孙石阳 覃军 陈正洪 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地质大学,武汉,武汉,430074 2. 深圳市气象局,深圳,518020 3. 中国地质大学,武汉,武汉,430074;武汉区域气候中心,武汉,430074 |
| 基金项目： | 深圳市气象科学技术研究项目 |
| 摘 要： | 利用深圳市2003-2007年5年的流感样病例资料和同期气象资料,对深圳市夏季流感与气象条件的关系进行了分析与统计。研究发现深圳市流感高峰期发生在春季和夏季,且存在向夏季转移的趋势,这种流感流行的季节差异与天气条件有很大的关系,受气温、相对湿度的影响显著,在平均气温处于25-30℃之间,相对湿度较高的天气条件下易出现流感高峰。用最低气温、最小相对湿度和日照时数为预报因子,建立了深圳市夏季流感就诊率的等级预报模型。 |
| 关 键 词： | 流行性感冒 就诊率 气象因子 就诊率预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008/11/12 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 6/2/2009 12:00:00 AM |
Seasonal Characteristics of Clinical Rate of Influenza Like Illness in Shenzhen and Its Meteorological Forecast Model |
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| Zhai Hongnan,Zhang Li,Sun Shiyang,Qin Jun and Chen Zhenghong.Seasonal Characteristics of Clinical Rate of Influenza Like Illness in Shenzhen and Its Meteorological Forecast Model[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2009,37(6):709-712. | |
| Authors: | Zhai Hongnan Zhang Li Sun Shiyang Qin Jun and Chen Zhenghong |
| Institution: | Zhai Hongnan, Zhang Li, Sun Shiyang, Qin Jun, Chen Zhenghong (1 China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074; 2 Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau, Shenzhen 518020 3 Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan 430074) |
| Abstract: | The relationship between influenza and meteorological factors in Shenzhen is analyzed by using the detailed data of influenza cases and meteorological data from 2003 to 2007 in Shenzhen. The results show that spring and summer is the influenza epidemic period in Shenzhen, and the epidemic period is tending to move toward summer gradually; the seasonal variation has a close relationship with the temperature and humidity; the influenza peak occurs frequently in the case of temperature being in the range of 25 ℃ to 30 ℃ and higher humidity. The regressive equation for forecasting the clinical rates of Influenza-Like Illness （ILI） is established. The minimum air temperature, minimum relative humidity and sunshine duration are the typical meteorological forecasting factors. |
| Keywords: | Influenza Like Illness (ILI) clinical rate meteorological factor forecast equation |
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