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| 全球气候变化的几个关键问题辨析 | |
| 引用本文： | 陈泮勤,程邦波,王芳,曲建升.全球气候变化的几个关键问题辨析[J].地球科学进展,2010,25(1):69-75. |
| 作者姓名： | 陈泮勤 程邦波 王芳 曲建升 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院资源环境科学与技术局,北京,100864 2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101 3. 中国科学院国家科学图书馆兰州分馆/中国科学院资源环境科学信息中心,甘肃,兰州,730000 |
| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程方向性项目“应对气候变化影响的国别研究及策略”(编号:KZCX2-YW-305-5)资助 |
| 摘 要： | 基于对全球气候变化事实与国家气候变化行动的分析，就当前全球气候变化科学认识和行动中的几个关键问题的不同观点与争论进行了辨析。指出：①应以比较确定的科学事实和“共同但有区别的责任”作为应对气候变化的出发点；②全球增温的幅度被高估了；③近百年全球变暖主要归因于人类活动的论断科学证据不足;④全球变暖的影响有利有弊，具体问题需具体分析;⑤气候预估不等于气候预测，气候预测尚待时日，气候预估的不确定性也非常大;⑥当前应对全球变暖的行动应采取“适应为主、减缓为辅”的战略。 |
| 关 键 词： | 全球气候变化 全球变暖 热岛效应 气候预估 不确定性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009-11-24 |
| 修稿时间： | 2009-12-13 |
Discrimination on Several Key Issues of Global Climate Change |
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| CHEN Panqin,CHENG Bangbo,WANG Fang,QU Jiansheng.Discrimination on Several Key Issues of Global Climate Change[J].Advance in Earth Sciences,2010,25(1):69-75. | |
| Authors: | CHEN Panqin CHENG Bangbo WANG Fang QU Jiansheng |
| Institution: | 1.Bureau of Science and Technology for Resources and Environment, CAS， Beijing100864， China;; 2.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research，CAS，Beijing100101， China;; 3.The Lanzhou Branch of the National Science Library/The Scientific Information Center for Resources and Environment, CAS, Lanzhou730000，China) |
| Abstract: | On the basis of global climate change facts and the analysis of the national climate change action, i- dentification of a few key issues and debate of different points of view of the current scientific understanding of glob-al climate change and actions has been made. It is pointed that: ①as a start point, the relative reliable and certain scientific facts, as well as the principles of the common but different duty should be taken in order to response to climate change; ②the magnitude of global warming has been overestimated; ③over the past century warming is mainly due to human activities is lack of scientific evidence ; ④effects of global wanning pros and cons need a con-crete analysis of specific problems;⑤climate predictions does not equal weather forecasting and their uncertainty is very large; ⑥the current action to address global warming should be taken to "adapt the main mitigation supple-ment" strategy. |
| Keywords: | Global climate change Global warming Heat island effect Climate projection Adaptation Palliation |
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