Seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia (SE Spain): analysis of source contribution to hazard |
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| Authors: | J García-Mayordomo J M Gaspar-Escribano B Benito |
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| Institution: | (1) Geotechnical Laboratory, Center for Studies and Experimentation on Public Works (CEDEX), Alfonso XII, 3, 28014 Madrid, Spain;(2) E.T.S.I. Topografía, Geodesia y Cartografía, Campus Sur UPM, Carretera de Valencia, Km 7, 28031 Madrid, Spain |
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| Abstract: | A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral
accelerations SA(T)] is presented in this paper. In contrast to most of the previous studies in the region, which were performed for PGA making
use of intensity-to-PGA relationships, hazard is here calculated in terms of magnitude and using European spectral ground-motion
models. Moreover, we have considered the most important faults in the region as specific seismic sources, and also comprehensively
reviewed the earthquake catalogue. Hazard calculations are performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment
(PSHA) methodology using a logic tree, which accounts for three different seismic source zonings and three different ground-motion
models. Hazard maps in terms of PGA and SA(0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 s) and coefficient of variation (COV) for the 475-year
return period are shown. Subsequent analysis is focused on three sites of the province, namely, the cities of Murcia, Lorca
and Cartagena, which are important industrial and tourism centres. Results at these sites have been analysed to evaluate the
influence of the different input options. The most important factor affecting the results is the choice of the attenuation
relationship, whereas the influence of the selected seismic source zonings appears strongly site dependant. Finally, we have
performed an analysis of source contribution to hazard at each of these cities to provide preliminary guidance in devising
specific risk scenarios. We have found that local source zones control the hazard for PGA and SA(T ≤ 1.0 s), although contribution from specific fault sources and long-distance north Algerian sources becomes significant
from SA(0.5 s) onwards. |
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| Keywords: | PSHA Logic tree Active faults Spectral acceleration Spain |
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