| 短时强降水历史个例查询与潜势预报平台 |
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| 引用本文： | 张莹,袁志勇,徐春阳,武敬峰,徐萌.短时强降水历史个例查询与潜势预报平台[J].气象科学,2012,32(S1):149-154. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张莹 袁志勇 徐春阳 武敬峰 徐萌 |
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| 作者单位： | 宿迁市气象局, 江苏 宿迁 223800;宿迁市气象局, 江苏 宿迁 223800;宿迁市气象局, 江苏 宿迁 223800;阿坝州气象局, 四川 阿坝 624000;江苏省气象科学研究所, 南京 210008 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(40875012);江苏省气象局青年基金项目(Q201009)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 短时强降水作为强对流的一种天气现象,是宿迁市较为常见的灾害性天气之一,常常对工农业生产、交通航运、建筑设施等造成影响。然而,预报一直是难点,因此如何利用现有的气象资料,开展短时强降水预报服务,并形成日常业务流程,对提高预报预警和防灾减灾能力十分重要。本文利用自动站逐时雨量资料、Micaps高低空和地面资料、NECP 1°× 1°的再分析资料和T213数值预报产品,基于Visual Basic语言开发了宿迁市短时强降水历史个例查询与潜势预报平台,以提高短时强降水预报质量,减少或避免气象灾害给社会经济造成的损失。
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| 关 键 词： | 短时强降水 历史个例查询 逐步消空法 潜势预报 |
The platform for historical case inquiry and potential trend forecast of the severe short-range precipitation |
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| ZHANG Ying,YUAN Zhiyong,XU Chunyang,WU Jingfeng and XU Meng.The platform for historical case inquiry and potential trend forecast of the severe short-range precipitation[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2012,32(S1):149-154. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Ying YUAN Zhiyong XU Chunyang WU Jingfeng and XU Meng |
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| Institution: | Suqian Meteorological Bureau, Jiangsu Suqian 223800, China;Suqian Meteorological Bureau, Jiangsu Suqian 223800, China;Suqian Meteorological Bureau, Jiangsu Suqian 223800, China;Aba Prefecture Meteorological Bureau, Sichuan Aba 624000, China;Jiangsu Meteorological Institute, Nanjing 210008, China |
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| Abstract: | As a strong convective weather, the severe short-range precipitation is far more common disaster weather in Suqian. It has an effect on the industry and agriculture, the transportation and shipping or the buildings. However, the forecast of the severe short-range precipitation is always difficult. It is important to improve the forecasting and warning ability or to prevent disaster in order to provide the prediction services of the severe short-range precipitation and set up routine operational flew chart by using the existing meteorological data. Based on Visual Basic, the hourly rainfall data from automatic stations, Micaps data, NECP 1°×1° reanalysis data and T213 numerical forecast product were used to develop the platform for historical case inquiry and potential trend forecast of the severe short-range precipitation in Suqian. The purpose is to improve prediction quality of the severe short-range precipitation and reduce the economic loss of meteorological disaster. |
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| Keywords: | Severe short-range precipitation Historical case inquiry Stepwise decreasing FAR method Potential trend forecast |
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