Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework—Applications in the water sector |
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| Authors: | Marie Ekström Natasha Kuruppu Robert L Wilby Hayley J Fowler Francis HS Chiew Suraje Dessai William J Young |
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| Institution: | 1. CSIRO Land and Water, Black Mountain, PO Box 1666, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia;2. Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK;3. Department of Geography, Loughborough University, Loughborough, LE11 3TU, UK;4. School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK;5. Sustainability Research Institute and ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK;6. Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation (CC-IAM) Research Group, Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon, Portugal |
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| Abstract: | Previous climate risk assessments provide important methodological insights into how to derive tractable research questions and the appropriate use of data under uncertainty, as well as identifying steps that benefit from stakeholder involvement. Here we propose the use of a framework for the systematic and objective exploration of climate risk assessments. The matrix facilitates a breakdown of information about aim and context, main results, methodological choices, stakeholder involvement, sources and characteristics of uncertainties and overall weaknesses. We then apply the matrix to three risk assessments in the water sector to explore some methodological strengths and weaknesses of approaches strongly linked to climate model outputs (top-down) versus those that originate from local knowledge of climate exposures (bottom-up), and demonstrate that closer integration with social and physical sciences is more likely to yield robust climate risk assessments. |
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