Hindcast/forecast of ENSO events based upon the redistribution of observed and model dynamic height in the Western Tropical Pacific, 1964–1986 |
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| Authors: | Stephen E Pazan Dr Warren B White Dr Masamichi Inoue Dr |
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| Institution: | (1) San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, 92097 La Jolla, CA, USA;(2) Florida State University, 32306-2050 Tallahassee, FL, USA |
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| Abstract: | Anomalous sea level, anomalous observed dynamic height (0/400 db) and anomalous model dynamic height are examined at the locations
of 13 island sea level stations in the tropical Pacific for each bimonth of the four year period 1979 to 1982. Starting in
1981, the anomalous dynamic height data show off-equatorial Rossby waves propagated toward the W boundary of the Pacific basin.
At the W boundary, the model Rossby wave activity was found to have excited coastally trapped Kelvin-Munk waves which transmitted
the anomalous dynamic height equatorward. At the equator, coastally trapped wave activity excited eastward propagating equatorial
Kelvin waves, yielding a pair of anomalous peaks in dynamic height variability in the E equatorial Pacific associated with
the 1982–1983 ENSO event. The evolution of the peaks in dynamic height associated with the Rossby and Kelvin wave activity
reflects the redistribution of observed upper-ocean heat content in the W tropical Pacific, providing a qualitative hindcast
for the 1982–1983 ENSO event.
In consequence of these results, and the results of a related study (Inoue et al. 1985), the redistribution of both observed
and model heat content, as evidenced in dynamic height in the W Pacific during the 23-year period 1964–1985, is examined for
its ability to hindcast and forecast ENSO events in this period. Complex EOF analysis is applied to the Onset Phase of ENSO
events occurring in 1968–69, 1972–73, 1976–77, and 1982–83; it is used to determine the characteristic redistribution of heat
content (dynamic height) prior to the Mature Phase of ENSO events. This analysis found both model and observed dynamic height
in the N hemisphere to be characterized by wind-driven, westward propagating, baroclinic Rossby wave activity, having a remarkably
stable period of 3 years over the 23-year period. The complex time series associated with these first spatial eigen-functions
are used to construct observed and model hindcast indices that yield high values one year prior to the Mature Phase of ENSO
events of the period. These indices achieve these values due to the incidence upon the Philippine coast in fall/winter of
a positive anomaly in dynamic height propagating from the east at nondispersive Rossby long wave speeds. |
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