| 区域趋势控制协变量回归分析效果评估方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 叶家东,李铁林.区域趋势控制协变量回归分析效果评估方法研究[J].气象科学,2001,21(1):64-72. |
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| 作者姓名： | 叶家东 李铁林 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京大学大气科学系,
2. 河南省人工影响天气办公室, |
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| 摘 要： | 本文根据区域趋势控制和气象－物理协变量相关设计了三套非随机化人工增雨作业效果评估方案，个例作用区域趋势对比双比分析评估方案，区域趋势相关回归分析评估方案和气象－物理协变量多元回归分析评估方案，对河南省实例评估计算表明，利用物理协变量作为控制因子，可以提高作业区自然水量估计值的准确度，从而能提高随机化作业的效果评估效率。
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| 关 键 词： | 效果评估 区域趋势控制 协变量回归分析 人工增雨 |
| 修稿时间： | 1998年8月30日 |
EVALUATION METHODS OF CLOUD SEEDING EFFECT WITH REGIONAL CONTROL AND COVARIABLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS |
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| Ye Jiadong,Li Tielin.EVALUATION METHODS OF CLOUD SEEDING EFFECT WITH REGIONAL CONTROL AND COVARIABLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2001,21(1):64-72. |
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| Authors: | Ye Jiadong Li Tielin |
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| Abstract: | Three evaluation methods for the nonrandomized precipitation enhancement operation effects have been developed based on the regional rainfall control and meteorologi- cal covariable correlation:Dopple ratio analysis evaluation method using regional rainfall ten- dency control for single cloud seeding operation case;regression analysis evaluation effects on the bases of regional correlation and developing tendency of rainfall;and multiple regression analysis with meteorological and physical covariables. It is shown from the evaluation exam- ples of effects for cloud seeding operation cases carried out in the central region of Henan Province,that the inferential accuracy of natural rainfall on the cloud seeding operational area could be improved by using appropriate physical covariables as control factors,then the eval- uational efficiency of efficiency for the nonrandomized cloud seeding operations can be in- creased. |
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| Keywords: | Effect evaluation Regional control Covariable regression ananlysis |
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