| 袭港热带气旋持续时间长期频率分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陶山山,宋佳玲,廖振焜,董胜.袭港热带气旋持续时间长期频率分析[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2020(2):135-141. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陶山山 宋佳玲 廖振焜 董胜 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国海洋大学工程学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(51509227;51779236);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2014EEQ030)资助~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 香港经常受到西北太平洋热带气旋的影响,对该地区热带气旋持续时间的研究有助于经济社会的稳定发展。按照气象和天文台警告信号,热带气旋分为不同的强度等级。建立热带气旋持续时间的Poisson-Weibull复合分布模型,相应获得持续时间重现值的求解公式,分别用于不同热带气旋分类下持续时间多年一遇重现值的计算中。基于1987-2016年袭港热带气旋数据的分析结果表明,Poisson-Weibull分布适用于不同的持续时间分类样本;强的热带气旋经常会伴随较长的持续时间,这将会对该地区造成更为严重的破坏,这可为防灾减灾提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋 频率分析 WEIBULL分布 多年一遇 警告信号 持续时间 防灾减灾 求解公式 |
Long-Term Frequency Analysis for the Durations of Tropical Cyclones Attacking Hong Kong |
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| TAO Shan-Shan,SONG Jia-Ling,LIAO Zhen-Kun,DONG Sheng.Long-Term Frequency Analysis for the Durations of Tropical Cyclones Attacking Hong Kong[J].Periodical of Ocean University of China,2020(2):135-141. |
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| Authors: | TAO Shan-Shan SONG Jia-Ling LIAO Zhen-Kun DONG Sheng |
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| Institution: | (College of Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266071,China) |
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| Abstract: | Hong Kong is often attacked by the northwestern Pacific tropical cyclones, and the study on the tropical cyclones’ duration should contribute to the economic and social development. According to the meteorological point of view, the tropical cyclones are divided into tropical depressions, tropical storms, severe tropical storms, typhoons, severe typhoons and super typhoons;in addition, the Hong Kong Observatory classifies the tropical cyclones which attacked Hong Kong into 5 warning signal grades: 1, 3, 8(northwest, southwest, northeast and southeast), 9 and 10. The Poisson-Weibull compound extreme value distribution of tropical cyclones’ duration is constructed, and corresponding formula of return values is derived, then they are applied in the calculation of return values of different tropical cyclones’ duration. Based on the records of tropical cyclones attacked Hong Kong during 1987-2016, two consecutive samples are derived. Since one tropical cyclone in different time or at different location may have more than one warning signal, so the number of tropical cyclones corresponding to warning signal grades(427) is larger than that given by meteorological point(170). Poisson-Weibull distributions are applied to three cases to observe the return values of duration:(1) all the tropical cyclones according to the meteorological point;(2) two combinations of tropical cyclones according to the meteorological point, such as "tropical storms & severe tropical storms", "typhoons & severe typhoons & super storms";(3) five warning signal grades of tropical cyclones attacked Hong Kong, such as "8 northwest", "8 southwest", "8 northeast", "8 southeast", "9&10". The analysis shows that, Poisson-Weibull distributions are suitable to different samples of tropical cyclones’ duration. By comparison, the following results are obtainedt can provide the reference to the disaster prevention and mitigation.(1) The duration values with the same return periods based on the sample of "typhoons & severe typhoons & super storms" are larger than those based on "tropical storms & severe tropical storms", so severe tropical cyclones accompany with longer duration, and this must cause great attention of the meteorological department.(2) For the tropical cyclones attacked Hong Kong with 8 warning signal grade, the return values of duration in the southeast and northwest are larger than those in the northeast and southwest.(3) When the return periods are smaller than 100, the return duration values based on the sample of "9&10" warning signals are larger than those based on "8" warning signals, but if the return periods are larger than 100, we have the opposite results. This means that super warning cyclones may accompany with longer duration, and it also needs great attention of relevant departments. |
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| Keywords: | tropical cyclone Hong Kong duration compound extreme value distribution return value |
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