| 新疆香梨花期霜冻灾害风险评估模型构建及适用性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 吉春容,火勋国,谷然,张山清,李迎春,张祖莲.新疆香梨花期霜冻灾害风险评估模型构建及适用性分析[J].新疆气象,2023,17(6):83-88. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吉春容 火勋国 谷然 张山清 李迎春 张祖莲 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆兴农网信息中心/新疆维吾尔自治区农业气象台,新疆兴农网信息中心/新疆维吾尔自治区农业气象台,新疆兴农网信息中心/新疆维吾尔自治区农业气象台,新疆兴农网信息中心/新疆维吾尔自治区农业气象台,新疆兴农网信息中心/新疆维吾尔自治区农业气象台,新疆兴农网信息中心/新疆维吾尔自治区农业气象台 |
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| 基金项目： | 新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发计划项目（20222101537） |
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| 摘 要： | 全球变暖和极端气候事件频发背景下，人们更加关注农林业生产面临的灾害风险。构建灾害预警指标，开展风险预警并提前防范，对于有效防灾减灾减损具有重要意义。基于新疆1981-2020年霜冻灾情、气象因子、香梨种植面积资料，计算香梨花期霜冻灾害危险性指数、暴露度和脆弱性指数，构建了霜冻灾害风险评估综合模型，并基于格点预报开展了香梨霜冻风险预警，对评估模型的适用性进行了验证。结果表明，过程最低气温、降温幅度、低温持续时间是霜冻灾害的主要致灾因子。春季霜冻危险性空间分布，总体呈现北部高、南部低的特点。香梨遭受春季霜冻的高风险区，主要分布在北疆西部、天山北坡的西部和中部以及南疆巴州北部、阿克苏市及其南部部分区域。基于气象实况和果园灾害调查结果表明，霜冻灾害风险评估模型和格点预报相结合，能较好地预报香梨霜冻风险分区、影响等级，与香梨霜冻灾害实际发生区域、受冻百分率基本一致，霜冻指标和风险预警模型具有合理性和适用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 香梨，霜冻，致灾因子，风险评估，适用性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2023/8/25 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2023/9/11 0:00:00 |
Construction and applicability analysis of frost disaster risk assessment model in flower period of fragrant pear in Xinjaing |
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| Abstract: | Under the background of frequent global warming and extreme climate events, people pay more attention to the disaster risk of agricultural and forestry production. It is of great significance to construct disaster early warning indicators, carry out risk early warning and advance prevention for effective disaster prevention, mitigation and loss reduction. Based on the data of frost disaster situation, meteorological factors and planting area of fragrant pear from 1981 to 2020 in Xinjiang, the frost disaster risk index, exposure and vulnerability index were calculated, the frost disaster risk assessment model of flower period was comprehensively constructed, and the fragrant pear frost risk warning was conducted based on the grid forecast, verifying the applicability of the assessment model.The results show that the lowest temperature, process temperature range and low temperature duration are the main factors of frost disaster.The spatial distribution of frost risk in spring is generally high in the north and low in the south. The high risk areas of spring frost are mainly distributed in the western part of northern Xinjiang, the western and central regions of the northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains, the northern part of Bazhou, Aksu City and its southern parts, with high risk and loss of frost. Based on the meteorological situation and the orchard disaster survey results, it shows that the combination of the frost risk assessment model and the lattice forecast can better forecast the risk zoning and influence level of fragrant pear frost, which is basically consistent with the actual occurrence area and percentage of the frost disaster of fragrant pear. The frost index and risk warning model are reasonable and applicable. |
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| Keywords: | fragrant pear frost disaster disaster-causing factor risk assessment applicability |
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