International trade undermines national emission reduction targets: New evidence from air pollution |
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| Institution: | 1. ISA, School of Physics A28, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia;2. Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Tohoku University, Sendai 980-8579, Japan;3. Programme for Industrial Ecology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 7491, Norway;1. The Center for Economic Research, Shandong School of Development, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, China;2. Graduate School, Shandong University of Political Science and Law, No. 63 Jie Fang Dong Road, Jinan 250014, China;1. School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK;2. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China;3. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of International Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK;4. Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, People''s Republic of China;1. School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing, China;2. School of International Development, University of East Anglia, East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK;1. Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China;2. Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China;3. Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China;4. Resnick Sustainability Institute, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA;5. State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China;6. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of International Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom;7. State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China;1. School of International Trade and Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing, China;2. School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing, China;1. Management School, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China;2. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China;3. Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA;4. State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China |
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| Abstract: | Many developed countries in Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol have been able to report decreasing emissions, and some have officially fulfilled their CO2 reduction commitments. This is in part because current reporting and regulatory regimes allow these countries to displace emissions intensive production offshore. Using a new highly detailed account of emissions embodied in international trade we investigate this phenomenon of emissions leakage. We independently confirm previous findings that adjusting for trade, developed countries emissions have increased, not decreased. We find that the sectors successfully holding or lowering their domestic emissions are often the same as those increasing their imports of embodied CO2. We also find that the fastest growing flow paths of embodied CO2 largely originate outside the Kyoto Annex B signatory nations. Finally, we find that historically the same phenomenon of emissions displacement has already occurred for air pollution, with the result that despite aggressive legislation in major emitters total global air pollution emissions have increased. If regulatory policies do not account for embodied imports, global emissions are likely to rise even if developed countries emitters enforce strong national emissions targets. |
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| Keywords: | Embodied emissions Footprint Trade MRIO Input–output |
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