Uncertainty and Reliability Analysis Applied to Slope Stability: A Case Study From Sungun Copper Mine |
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| Authors: | Mohsen Abbaszadeh Kourosh Shahriar Mostafa Sharifzadeh Mehrdad Heydari |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Hafez 424, 15875-4413 Tehran, Iran; |
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| Abstract: | Nowadays, there are many new methods for slope stability analysis; including probabilistic methods assessing geotechnical
uncertainties to develop safety factors. In this paper, a reliability index analysis for the Sungun copper mine slope stability
is evaluated based on three methods of uncertainties consisting Taylor series method, Rosenblueth point estimate method and
Monte-Carlo simulation method. Sungun copper mine will be one of the Iran’s biggest mines with final pit’s height of 700 meters.
For this study two of its main slopes were assessed, one dipping to the NE (030) and the other to the SE (140). Probability
density function of cohesion and angle of friction for the slopes were developed using limit equilibrium methods. These shear
strengths were then used to determine the probability density function of safety factor and reliability index using the probabilistic
methods. Results of the probabilistic analysis indicate that with ascending values of the uncertainties the reliability index
decreases. Furthermore, it was determined that with the Monte Carlo simulation the seed number used has little effect on the
reliability index of the safety factor especially with seed numbers in excess of 1200. Variations in the overall reliability
index of safety factor were observed between the two slopes and this difference is explained by the differences in complexities
of the geology within the cross-section. |
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