| 天津近海海域隐伏断裂地震危险性评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘红艳,陈宇坤,闫成国,杨菲.天津近海海域隐伏断裂地震危险性评价[J].震灾防御技术,2013,8(2):146-155. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘红艳 陈宇坤 闫成国 杨菲 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津市地震局,天津,300201 |
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| 基金项目： | 天津市“十一五”地震安全基础工程（津发改投资【2009】1230号）、天津市地震局青年基金（编号0905）和天津市科技兴海项目（KJXH2012-30）联合资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 以天津市近海海域断裂探测资料为基础,通过对海河断裂海域段和海一断裂的地质构造、第四纪活动性、深部构造、构造应力场与形变场以及地震活动性等的研究,综合判定了海河断裂海域段和海一断裂的活动性与构造特征.利用地震地质、历史与现今地震活动性资料,建立了按500a归算的震级-频度关系模型,根据天津地区的最大震级上限Mu与a/b的关系,计算出了海河断裂海域段和海一断裂的最大震级.采用泊松概率模型,估算出了海河断裂海域段和海一断裂未来50-200a发生地震的最大震级、发生概率以及复发周期等定量参数.
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| 关 键 词： | 地震危险性 定量评价 断层小区 震级-频度关系 最大震级 发震概率 复发周期 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013/1/10 0:00:00 |
Seismic Risk Evaluation on Blind Faults in Tianjin Offshore Areas |
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| Liu Hongyan,Chen Yukun,Yan Chengguo and Yang Fei.Seismic Risk Evaluation on Blind Faults in Tianjin Offshore Areas[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2013,8(2):146-155. |
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| Authors: | Liu Hongyan Chen Yukun Yan Chengguo and Yang Fei |
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| Institution: | Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality, Tianjin 300201, China;Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality, Tianjin 300201, China;Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality, Tianjin 300201, China;Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality, Tianjin 300201, China |
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| Abstract: | The tectonic structure, Quaternary activity, deep structure, stress and strain fields and seismicity on the faults in Tianjin offshore areas are studied through field surveying in order to determine the activity and tectonic features synthetically. Using seismo-geological data, as well as the historical and modern seismicity data, the frequency-magnitude relationship model reckoning by 500 years is established. Based on the relationship between the upper limit of maximum magnitude Mu and at/b, we calculate the maximum magnitude of the Haihe river fracture sea section and Haiyi fault. Then Poisson probability model is adopted and quantitative parameters such as the maximum magnitude, occurrence probability, recurrence period of the faults in south Tianjin offshore areas in coming 50-200 years are calculated. |
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| Keywords: | Seismic risk Quantitative evaluation Fault sub-area Frequency-magnitude relationship Maximum magnitude Occurrence probability Recurrence period |
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