Increases in fire risk due to warmer summer temperatures and wildland urban interface changes do not necessarily lead to more fires |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Forest Engineering, University of Córdoba, Campus de Rabanales, Edificio Leonardo da Vinci, 14071 Córdoba, Spain;2. Department of Forest Engineering, University of Córdoba, Campus de Rabanales, Edificio Leonardo da Vinci, 14071 Córdoba, Spain;3. Department of Forest Engineering, University of Córdoba, Campus de Rabanales, Edificio Leonardo da Vinci, 14071 Córdoba, Spain;1. Centro de Investigação e de Tecnologias Agro-Ambientais e Biológicas, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Quinta de Prados, Apartado 1013, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal;2. ICAAM, Instituto de Ciências Agrárias e Ambientais Mediterrânicas, Universidade de Évora, Núcleo da Mitra, Apartado 94, 7006-554 Évora, Portugal;3. Instituto da Conservação da Natureza e Florestas, I.P., Estrada Exterior da Circunvalação 11846, 4460-281 Senhora da Hora, Portugal;4. The Navigator Company, Departamento de Proteção Florestal, Apartado 55, 2901-861 Setúbal, Portugal;5. Centro de Estudos Florestais, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisboa, Portugal;1. Department of Environmental Science and Management, Portland State University, United States;2. Institute for a Sustainable Environment, University of Oregon, United States;3. Department of Landscape Architecture, University of Oregon, United States;1. Safety and Security Science Group, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands;2. Hydrogen Safety Engineering and Research Centre (HySAFER), Ulster University, UK |
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| Abstract: | Forest fire frequency in Mediterranean countries is expected to increase with land cover and climate changes as temperatures rise and rainfall patterns are altered. Although the cause of many Mediterranean fires remains poorly defined, most fires are of anthropogenic origin and are located in the wildland urban interface (WUI), so fire ignition risk depends on both weather and land cover characteristics. The objectives of this study were to quantify the overall trends in forest fire risk in the WUI of the Alpes-Maritimes department in SE France over a period of almost 50 years (about 1960–2009) and relate these to changes in land cover and temperature changes. Land cover for two contrasting reference catchments (236 km2 and 289 km2, respectively) was mapped from available aerial photographs. Changes in fire risk over time were estimated using statistical relationships defined for each type of WUI, where isolated and scattered housing present a greater risk than dense and very dense housing. Summer monthly temperatures and spring and summer precipitation were quantified over the same temporal period as land cover. Finally, trends in fire frequency and burned area were analyzed over a shorter 37 year period (1973–2009) due to the lack of available fire data before 1973. Fire risk associated with WUI expansion increased by about 18%–80% over the 1960–2009 period (depending on the catchment). Similarly, mean summer minimum and maximum monthly temperatures increased by 1.8 °C and 1.4 °C, respectively, over the same period. Summer rainfall appears to decrease over time since about the 1970's but remains highly variable. Land cover and weather changes both suggest an overall increase in fire risk. However, the number of fires and burned area have decreased significantly since about 1990. This paradoxical result is due to a change in fire-fighting strategy which reinforced the systematic extinction of fires in their early stages. Technical support in the form of improved radio communication and helicopters contributed greatly to reducing fire frequency and burned area. Surveillance and legal reforms included the introduction of field patrols and restricted access to forests during high risk periods. Although this has proven highly successful in the short term, the risk of fuel load accumulation over time remains a risk which might contribute to the development of mega-fires in extreme climatic conditions in the future. |
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| Keywords: | Wildland urban interface (WUI) Land cover change Climate change Forest fires Fire risk Fire suppression |
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