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Effect of Three Gorges Dam on Poyang Lake water level at daily scale based on machine learning
Authors:Huang  Sheng  Xia  Jun  Zeng  Sidong  Wang  Yueling  She  Dunxian
Institution:1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China2. Hubei Key Laboratory of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China3. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China4. Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, CAS, Chongqing 400714, China
Abstract:Lake water level is an essential indicator of environmental changes caused by nat-ural and human factors.The water level of Poyang Lake,the largest freshwater lake in China,has exhibited a dramatic variation for the past few years,especially after the completion of the Three Gorges Dam(TGD).However,there is a lack of more accurate assessment of the ef-fect of the TGD on the Poyang Lake water level(PLWL)at finer temporal scales(e.g.,the daily scale).Here,we used three machine learning models,namely,an Artificial Neural Net-work(ANN),a Nonlinear Autoregressive model with eXogenous input(NARX),and a Gated Recurrent Unit(GRU),to simulate the daily lake level during 2003-2016.We found that ma-chine learning models with historical memory(i.e.,the GRU model)are more suitable for simulating the PLWL under the influence of the TGD.The GRU-based results show that the lake level is significantly affected by the TGD regulation in the different operation stages and in different periods.Although the TGD has had a slight but not very significant impact on the yearly decline of the PLWL,the blocking or releasing of water at the TGD at certain moments has caused large changes in the lake level.This machine-learning-based study sheds light on the interactions between Poyang Lake and the Yangtze River regulated by the TGD.
Keywords:water level  Poyang Lake  machine learning  Three Gorges Dam  Yangtze River
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