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| 中国地级市间流动人口永久定居意愿的空间特征和影响因素 | |
| 引用本文： | 丁悦,林李月,朱宇,柯文前,肖宝玉.中国地级市间流动人口永久定居意愿的空间特征和影响因素[J].地理科学进展,2021,40(11):1888-1899. |
| 作者姓名： | 丁悦 林李月 朱宇 柯文前 肖宝玉 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 湿润亚热带生态地理过程教育部重点实验室,福州 350007 2. 福建师范大学地理科学学院,福州 350007 3. 福建师范大学地理研究所,福州 350007 4. 上海大学亚洲人口研究中心,上海 200444 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金面上项目(41971168);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41971180) |
| 摘 要： | 促进流动人口市民化成为当前国家推进新型城镇化进程中着力解决的重点问题,而永久定居意愿是促进流动人口市民化的关键内在驱动力。论文从地级市间流动人口的永久定居意愿出发,利用全国流动人口动态监测调查数据和多元线性回归模型开展实证研究。结果发现：① 地级市间流动人口的永久定居意愿有着整体水平偏低、空间不均衡的特点;永久定居意愿流形成以上海市、深圳市和北京市为主,内陆部分城市群的核心城市为辅的多极格局;随着永久定居意愿的增强,对城市的选择愈发聚焦在少数几个一线城市。② 模型结果显示,流入地级市与流出地级市间的工资与失业率的差距显著影响地级市间流动人口的永久定居意愿;女性、年长、受教育程度高、短距离迁移、停驻时间长以及举家迁移等的流动人口具有更高的永久定居意愿;流入城市的住房开始取代就业成为定居决策过程中最为重要的经济因素变量。 |
| 关 键 词： | 永久定居意愿 地级市 流动人口 新型城镇化 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-01-27 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021-05-14 |
Spatial pattern and determinants of floating population's permanent settlement intention between prefecture-level cities in China |
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| DING Yue,LIN Liyue,ZHU Yu,KE Wenqian,XIAO Baoyu.Spatial pattern and determinants of floating population's permanent settlement intention between prefecture-level cities in China[J].Progress in Geography,2021,40(11):1888-1899. | |
| Authors: | DING Yue LIN Liyue ZHU Yu KE Wenqian XIAO Baoyu |
| Institution: | 1. Key Laboratory for Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Processes of the Ministry of Education, Fuzhou 350007, China 2. School of Geography, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China 3. Institute of Geography, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China 4. Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China |
| Abstract: | Along with the development of "people-centered urbanization" and a series of household registration (hukou) reforms, promoting the conversion of floating population into urban residents (shiminhua) has become a priority task of China's urbanization. The permanent settlement intention of floating population is one of the driving forces to promote the urbanization of floating population. Based on the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey conducted by the National Health and Family Planning Commission and China's city statistical yearbook 2017, and using the spatial visualization function of ArcGIS and multiple linear regression model, this study analyzed the spatial pattern and determinants of floating population's permanent settlement intention between prefecture-level cities in China. The results show that the overall level of the floating population's permanent settlement intention is only 27.2%, and there is a significant variation of floating population's permanent settlement intention between prefecture-level cities among cities of different sizes and geographical regions. The flow of permanent settlement intention forms a multipolar pattern with Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing as the main cities, and the core cities of some inland urban agglomerations as supplement. Meanwhile, the floating population prefers the three major coastal urban agglomerations of the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and with the increasing intention of permanent settlement, the choice of cities is increasingly focused on a few big cities. The modeling results reveal that the more stable of employment environment and higher wages of the destination cities than the cities of origin, the stronger intention of floating population to settle permanently. The gap of the wage and unemployment rate between the destination cities and cities of origin significantly affects the floating population's permanent settlement intention. Female, older people, and people with higher levels of educational attainment, short distance of migration, longer duration of residence in the host city, and family migration, have significantly higher permanent settlement intention. Moreover, owning houses in the destination city began to replace the role of employment and became the most important economic status variable in the settlement decision-making process. These results will facilitate relevant policy making to further advance China's urbanization, and contribute to better theoretical understanding of urban and mobility transitions in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | permanent settlement intention prefecture-level cities floating population new-type urbanization |
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