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| “21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿线东盟国家与中国地缘关系判识研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 沈山,魏中胤,仇方道,胡庭浩.“21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿线东盟国家与中国地缘关系判识研究[J].地理科学,2021,41(8):1448-1457. |
| 作者姓名： | 沈山 魏中胤 仇方道 胡庭浩 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 江苏师范大学一带一路研究院，江苏 徐州 221116 2. 江苏师范大学地理测绘与城乡规划学院，江苏 徐州 221116 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（41971158）、江苏高校优势学科（地理学）建设工程项目资助 |
| 摘 要： | 基于GDELT事件数据，采用语气指数、事件频率、事件记忆性、语气均衡度、核密度估计等方法，定量分析 2013―2019 年东盟关于中国事件的态度，探讨冲突事件空间演化特征，追踪事件并构建事件关系网络。结论：东盟关于中国的报道以合作事件为主；东盟冲突事件语气均衡度相对离散，半月周期内合作、冲突事件对同类事件发生有正向影响，季度内冲突事件会得到改善；东盟风险格局由大事件主导、局部事件补充形成，演化趋向简洁化；合作事件以领导人会谈为主，司法交流、基建合作、国际援助等多类型合作并存，冲突事件以南海争端为主，边境安全、境外犯罪、恐怖袭击等亦有重要影响；菲律宾、缅甸是关键国家节点，东盟对中国主要作用途径有：菲、老、印、柬领导人会谈，菲、越、印领土主权问题，缅甸边境风险等。中国应重视长期布局与东盟的合作关系，加强政府间合作框架设计与战略对接，强化次区域合作，推动南海合作新机制发展，针对性防范各国突出风险。 |
| 关 键 词： | 东盟国家 地缘关系 国家风险 GDELT 事件数据 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-07-31 |
Identification of Regional Relations and Geopolitical Judgment of ASEAN Countries Along the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" |
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| Shen Shan,Wei Zhongyin,Qiu Fangdao,Hu Tinghao.Identification of Regional Relations and Geopolitical Judgment of ASEAN Countries Along the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road"[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2021,41(8):1448-1457. | |
| Authors: | Shen Shan Wei Zhongyin Qiu Fangdao Hu Tinghao |
| Institution: | 1. Institute of the Belt and Road, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, China 2. School of Geography, Geomatics and Planning, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, China |
| Abstract: | Based on GDELT event data, quantitative analysis of ASEAN’s attitudes towards China events in 2013-2019 was made using tone index, event frequency, event memorability, tone equilibrium, and kernel density estimation. We also explored the spatial evolution characteristics of conflict events, tracked the events, and constructed a network of event relationships. Conclusions were as follows: ASEAN’s coverage of China dominated by cooperative events. ASEAN conflicted event tone equilibrium was relatively discrete and these events would be improved in a quarter, while cooperation and conflict events had a positive impact on the occurrence of similar events in the semimonthly cycle. ASEAN risk pattern was dominated by large events and complemented by local events, while the evolution of the risk pattern tended to be concise. ASEAN cooperation events were mainly about leaders meeting, judicial exchanges, infrastructure cooperation, international aid etc. Conflict events were mainly about disputes in the South China Sea, border security, overseas crimes, and terrorist attacks. Philippines and Myanmar were key country nodes. Some events had significant influence on China, such as the meeting between the leaders of the Philippines, Laos, Indonesia and Cambodia, the territorial sovereignty issues of the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia, the border risks of Myanmar etc. It is recommended that China should strengthen long term cooperative relations with ASEAN, enhance the design of cooperation frameworks and strategic docking between governments, strengthen sub-regional cooperation, promote the development of new mechanisms for cooperation in the South China Sea, and prevent the prominent risks of countries. |
| Keywords: | ASEAN countries geopolitical relations country risk GDELT the event data |
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