| MJO随机强迫对CNOP型初始误差演变的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱文超,王文生,徐卫星,何健棠,张新甲.MJO随机强迫对CNOP型初始误差演变的影响[J].气象科学,2014,34(4):421-427. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱文超 王文生 徐卫星 何健棠 张新甲 |
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| 作者单位： | 台山市气象局, 广东台山 529200;台山市气象局, 广东台山 529200;开平市气象局, 广东开平 529300;台山市气象局, 广东台山 529200;台山市气象局, 广东台山 529200 |
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| 摘 要： | 用Zebiak-Cane模式和季节内振荡(Madden-Julian Oscillation,MJO)的参数化表述以及条件非线性最优扰动(Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation,CNOP)方法,分析了以ENSO事件为基态的CNOP型初始误差的空间结构增长规律。结果表明,参数化的MJO对CNOP型初始误差的发展影响较小,其影响主要是使中东太平洋的海表面温度异常增大。CNOP型初始误差比由MJO不确定性产生的模式误差的影响大,前者可能是造成ENSO事件预报不确定性的主要误差来源。由于CNOP型初始误差的局地性,本结论可用来指导ENSO的目标观测和适应性资料同化。
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| 关 键 词： | 参数化 季节内振荡 条件非线性最优扰动 初始误差 ENSO事件 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012/11/24 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2013/4/10 0:00:00 |
Influence of MJO stochastic forcing on the evolution of initial errors in CNOP type |
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| ZHU Wenchao,WANG Wensheng,XU Weixing,HE Jiantang and ZHANG Xinjia.Influence of MJO stochastic forcing on the evolution of initial errors in CNOP type[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2014,34(4):421-427. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Wenchao WANG Wensheng XU Weixing HE Jiantang and ZHANG Xinjia |
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| Institution: | Taishan Meteorological Bureau, Guangdong Taishan 529200, China;Taishan Meteorological Bureau, Guangdong Taishan 529200, China;Kaiping Meteorological Bureau, Guangdong Kaiping 529300, China;Taishan Meteorological Bureau, Guangdong Taishan 529200, China;Taishan Meteorological Bureau, Guangdong Taishan 529200, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on Zebiak-Cane model, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) parameterized representation and Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP) type, the spatial growth pattern of the initial errors in CNOP type taking ENSO event as ground state was analyzed. The results show that the parameterized MJOs have little effects on the development of the initial errors in CNOP type, whose main effects LIE IN enlarging the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly in the central and eastern Pacific; the impact of the initial errors in CNOP type is larger than those by the uncertainty of MJO,which indicates that the initial errors are probably the main error sources, which lead to the uncertainty of the ENSO prediction. Due to the localized feature of the initial errors in CNOP type, the same conclusion can to the target observation of ENSO and adaptive data assimilation. |
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| Keywords: | Parameterization Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Peturbation(CNOP) Initial error ENSO event |
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