Probability-weighted hazard maps for comparing different flood risk management strategies: a case study |
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| Authors: | Giuliano Di Baldassarre Attilio Castellarin Alberto Montanari Armando Brath |
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| Institution: | (1) School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK;(2) School of Civil Engineering (Dept. DISTART), University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy |
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| Abstract: | The study proposes an original methodology for producing probability-weighted hazard maps based on an ensemble of numerical
simulations. These maps enable one to compare different strategies for flood risk management. The methodology was applied
over a 270-km2 flood-prone area close to the left levee system of a 28-km reach of the river Reno (Northern Central Italy). This reach is
characterised by the presence of a weir that allows controlled flooding of a large flood-prone area during major events. The
proposed probability-weighted hazard maps can be used to evaluate how a structural measure such as the mentioned weir alters
the spatial variability of flood hazard in the study area. This article shows an application by constructing two different
flood hazard maps: a first one which neglects the presence of the weir using a regular levee system instead, and a second
one that reflects the actual geometry with the weir. Flood hazard maps were generated by combining the results of several
inundation scenarios, simulated by coupling 1D- and 2D-hydrodynamic models. |
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| Keywords: | Flood hazard River Po plan Hydrodynamic models Flood inundation mapping |
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