Investigating Climate Change Impacts and Thresholds: An Application of the CLIMPACTS Integrated Assessment Model for New Zealand Agriculture |
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| Authors: | G J Kenny R A Warrick B D Campbell G C Sims M Camilleri P D Jamieson N D Mitchell H G McPherson M J Salinger |
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| Institution: | (1) International Global Change Institute, University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton, New Zealand;(2) AgResearch, Grasslands Research Centre, Private Bag 11008, Palmerston North, New Zealand;(3) HortResearch, Mt. Albert Research Centre, Private Bag 92 169, Auckland, New Zealand;(4) Crop and Food Research, Private Bag 4704, Christchurch, New Zealand;(5) School of Environmental and Marine Sciences, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand;(6) NIWA, P.O. Box 109695, Newmarket, Auckland, New Zealand |
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| Abstract: | The determination of `critical thresholds'is an essential task for informed policydecisions on establishing greenhouse gas emissiontargets. This paper presents a framework fordetermining critical thresholds for New Zealandagriculture, focusing on three agriculturalcrops – kiwifruit, grain maize, andPaspalum dilatatum – as exemplars for the fruitproduction, arable cropping and dairy productionindustries in New Zealand. The approach is based onthe application of a country-scale, integratedassessment model, called CLIMPACTS. The CLIMPACTSsystem contains a climate change scenario generator,climate and land data, and sectoral impact models. Importantly, CLIMPACTS allows time-dependentassessments of climate change and its effects, whichfacilitates the identification and examination of thresholds, which largely relate to spatial changes, over time, in regions of economic importance for these crops. However, whether such thresholds are `critical' for New Zealand cannot currently be addressed by the CLIMPACTS model. The determination of `criticality' requires a fully integrated assessment in which the social, economic, and environmental costs and risks associated with these thresholds are comprehensively evaluated. |
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