Advance first order second moment (AFOSM) method for single reservoir operation reliability analysis: a case study |
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| Authors: | A Ganji L Jowkarshorijeh |
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| Institution: | (1) College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran |
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| Abstract: | Reservoir system reliability is the ability of reservoir to perform its required functions under stated conditions for a specified
period of time. In classical method of reservoir system reliability analysis, the operation policy is used in a simple simulation
model, considering the historical/synthetic inflow series and a number of physical bounds on a reservoir system. This type
of reliability analysis assumes a reservoir system as fully failed or functioning, called binary state assumption. A number
of researchers from various research backgrounds have shown that the binary state assumption in the traditional reliability
theory is not extensively acceptable. Our approach to tackle the present problem space is to implement the algorithm of advance
first order second moment (AFOSM) method. In this new method, the inflow and reservoir storage are considered as uncertain
variables. The mean, variance and covariance of uncertain variables are determined using moment values of reservoir state
variables. For this purpose, a stochastic optimization model developed based on the constraint state formulation is applied.
The proposed model of reliability analysis is used to a real case study in Iran. As a result, monthly probabilities of water
allocation were computed from AFOSM method, and the outputs were compared with those from Monte Carlo method. The comparison
shows that the outputs from AFOSM method are similar to those from the Monte Carlo method. In term of practical use of this
study, the proposed method is appropriate to determine the monthly probability of failure in water allocation without the
aid of simulation. |
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