| 对新疆乌恰—喀什地区年度地震预测的总结与思考 |
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| 引用本文： | 高国英,郭卫英,龙海英.对新疆乌恰—喀什地区年度地震预测的总结与思考[J].西北地震学报,2009,31(4):397-402. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高国英 郭卫英 龙海英 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830011 |
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| 摘 要： | 在对新疆1973年以来年度地震预测情况进行综合研究基础上,重点分析了乌恰-喀什周围地区年度预测的阶段性特点,并对这一地区1900年以来M≥6地震和1972-2008年M≥5.5地震活动特征进行了的研究.认为对该区域地震活动规律性特点认识不足,没有遵循本地区地震活动的基本规律对地震趋势进行客观判断,是造成地震危险区预测效果较差的主要原因.依据地震活跃与间歇的特点认为2008年底开始乌恰-喀什周围地区将进入一个新的活跃时段,这一地区可能仍将继续被划定为年度强地震危险区.
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| 关 键 词： | 乌恰-喀什地区 年度预测总结 地震活动特征 趋势分析 |
Research and Ponderation Over the Efficiency of Annual Seismic Prediction for Wuqia-Kashi Region in Xinjiang |
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| GAO?Guo-ying,GUO?Wei-ying and LONG?Hai-ying.Research and Ponderation Over the Efficiency of Annual Seismic Prediction for Wuqia-Kashi Region in Xinjiang[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2009,31(4):397-402. |
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| Authors: | GAO?Guo-ying GUO?Wei-ying and LONG?Hai-ying |
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| Institution: | Earthquake?Administration?of?Xinjiang?Uyger?Autonomous?Region;Earthquake?Administration?of?Xinjiang?Uyger?Autonomous?Region;Earthquake?Administration?of?Xinjiang?Uyger?Autonomous?Region |
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| Abstract: | Based on the predictive results of annual seismic risk regions in Xinjiang since 1973, the efficiency in different phases for Wuqia-Kashi region is studied mainly, and the active character-istics of earthquake with magnitude M_s≥6.0 since 1900 and also the magnitude M_s≥5.5 from 1972 to 2008 are analyzed. It is considered that the earthquake prediction have not obtained finer results in the Wuqia-Kashi annual seismic risk regions, and the reason was lack of correct recog-nition to the seismic active regulations in this region. At last, according to the history earthquake activity characteristics, we predict that Wuqia-Kashi region will probably start an active period since the end of 2008, and it may be carry out an annual seismic risk area continually. |
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| Keywords: | Wuqia-Kashi region Summarization of the annual prediction Seismic active charac-teristics Earthquake trend prediction |
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