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Assessing the effectiveness of non-structural flood management measures in the Thames Estuary under conditions of socio-economic and environmental change |
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| Authors: | Richard J Dawson Tom Ball |
| Institution: | a School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Newcastle University, Cassie Building, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK b Geography, University of Dundee, Perth Road, Dundee, DD1 4HN, UK c Environmental Change Institute and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK d Laboratoire Edytem, Université de Savoie, 73011 Chambery CEDEX, France |
| Abstract: | Risk analysis and appraisal of the benefits of structural flood risk management measures such as embankments is well established. Here, a method to quantify, over extended timescales, the effectiveness of non-structural measures such as land use spatial planning, insurance and flood resilient construction is presented. The integrated approach couples socio-economic and climate change scenarios with long term land use modelling and flood risk analysis to generate maps and time series of expected annual damages. The analysis has been applied on a case study in the Thames Estuary in the UK. Stakeholders helped develop a number of scenarios that might lead to substantial changes in existing planning and insurance policies in the UK. The effectiveness of these changes was analysed and showed the substantial benefits in terms of reduction of future flood risks that are achievable with changes in planning policy, financial incentives and resilient property construction in the floodplain. Moreover, the reward can be increased through earlier action. Subsequently, the benefits of a range of policies are explored under the UK Foresight socio-economic scenarios. Different structural and non structural flood management interventions are tested and the results demonstrate that despite the potential for large increases in flood risk in the Thames Estuary, in all scenarios substantial flood risk reductions are possible. The effectiveness of non-structural measures is however sensitive to socio-economic changes and governance arrangements. The analysis described here will help to identify portfolios of non-structural and structural options that are robust to uncertainties. |
| Keywords: | Flooding Risk analysis Insurance Planning Non-structural measures |
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