| 成矿理论的预测能力及其改善途径 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘亮明.成矿理论的预测能力及其改善途径[J].地学前缘,2007,14(5):82-91. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘亮明 |
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| 作者单位： | 中南大学,计算地学研究中心,湖南,长沙,410083 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划
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高等学校博士学科点专项科研项目
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国家自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 成矿理论预测能力决定了成矿理论的价值及其对找矿勘查的贡献。通过分析成矿理论预测能力的历史和现状,探讨了制约成矿理论预测能力的因素,并针对这些因素提出促使成矿理论预测能力提高的途径。成矿系统的复杂性和研究方法上的不足,使得应用成矿理论进行成矿预测时,既没有能完全把握成矿的本质过程及控制矿体定位的关键因素,也没能弄清勘查区域的地质特征与地质过程,还进行了条件并不充分的不严格推理,从而使得当前成矿理论的预测能力并不高。从历史的变化规律来看,任何一种成矿理论经过一段时间应用后,其预测能力是逐渐下降的;针对某一特定矿床建立的成矿模式的预测能力要比根据某一类矿床的共同特征而建立的成矿理论低得多,区域成矿的理论预测远比矿床(体)预测容易。针对创造和应用成矿理论的不足,提高成矿预测能力的途径主要有:(1)不盲目追求高新技术和新奇理论,扎扎实实做好基础地质工作;(2)发展地球信息探测技术,在更大的范围更准确地探测地球信息;(3)创新地壳构造理论,更加准确推测地壳构造时空演化特征;(4)以整体论方法研究成矿理论系统,揭示成矿作用的复杂性规律;(5)去掉多余假设,使理论的内核尽可能简单化;(6)发展地质动力学计算模拟,通过计算模拟更深入了解成矿及相关地质系统;(7)发展多源信息三维空间集成技术,实现推理计算化。
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| 关 键 词： | 成矿理论 预测能力 成矿动力学 计算模拟 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-2321(2007)05-0082-10 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年8月15日 |
Predictive capability of metallogenic theory and its facilitating approaches |
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| Liu Liangming.Predictive capability of metallogenic theory and its facilitating approaches[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2007,14(5):82-91. |
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| Authors: | Liu Liangming |
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| Abstract: | This paper presents the comprehension analysis on prediction capability of metallogenic theories,mainly on its importance,its dissatisfactory behavior and constraining factors,and the approaches for boosting it.Because of the complexities of metallogenic system and the deficiencies of its research methods,it usually occurs that while the metallogenic prediction being carried out,the essential metallogenic processes and critical factors of controlling ores localization are not understood,the geologic characteristics and geological processes in the exploration district are also not really recognized and the undemanding deduction is processed under inadequate conditions.So the dissatisfactory predictive capability of metallogeny theories occurs.The evolution history of metallogeny theories shows that,the predictive capability of every metallogeny theory will be gradually diminishing after a boosting duration,a specific deposit model is much less predictive capable than the general metallogenic theory based a broad band range of deposits with similar features,and to predict a metallogenic district is mach easier than to predict ore deposits/bodies.Aiming at the deficiencies for creation and application of the metallogeny theories,the approaches for enhancing the predictive capability of metallogeny theories are suggested to include(1)pursuing sound and detail basic geologic works rather than new technologies and fancy theories;(2)developing earth-detecting technologies for acquiring more exact and more detail information from deeper earth crust;(3)innovating the theories of earth crust tectonics for getting more credible deduction about temporal-spatial evolution of crust tectonic architectures;(4)researching the metallogenic systems by using holism methods for uncovering the complexity regulation of metallogenic processes;(5)diminishing the assumptions for making the core of theories as simple as possible;(6)developing computational simulation of geodynamics for more thoroughly understanding metallogenic processes and the related geological systems;and(7)developing 3D information integrating technologies for realizing computational deduction. |
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| Keywords: | metallogeny theory predictive capability metallogenic dynamics computational simulation |
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