| 应用最优化订正法制作长江上游面雨量预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 周筱兰,张礼平,王仁乔,顾永刚.应用最优化订正法制作长江上游面雨量预报[J].气象,2003,29(3):31-33. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周筱兰 张礼平 王仁乔 顾永刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉中心气象台,430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局三峡保障服务项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用最优化订正法，通过对MAPS数值降水预报进行订正，制作长江上游六大流域短期面雨量预报。2002年6－10月业务试验表明，长江上游六大流域平均的常规降水面雨量预报准确率比MAPS高19％左右，强降水天气过程的击中率为48％左右，取得了较好的效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 长江上游 最优化订正法 MAPS 面雨量预报 降水天气过程 |
Application of Optimum Correction Method to Forecasting ofheavy Area Rainfall over the Upper Reaches of Changjiang River |
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| Zhou Xiaolan,Zhang Liping,Wang Renqiao,Gu Yonggang.Application of Optimum Correction Method to Forecasting ofheavy Area Rainfall over the Upper Reaches of Changjiang River[J].Meteorological Monthly,2003,29(3):31-33. |
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| Authors: | Zhou Xiaolan Zhang Liping Wang Renqiao Gu Yonggang |
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| Abstract: | By using the optimum correction method,the forecasting of short-rang area mean rainfall of the six drainage areas in the upper reaches of the Changjiang River is done based on correcting the MAPS precipitation numerical forecasting. The operational experiments from June to October show that accuracy of routine mean area rainfall is higher about 15% than that of MAPS,and accuracy of heavy mean area rainfall is higher about 18% than that of MAPS , and the percentage of hits is about 48%.So,it has good effect. |
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| Keywords: | optimum correction method MAPS the six drainage areas on the upper reaches of the Changjiang River mean area rainfall |
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