Going to the Extremes |
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| Authors: | Claudia Tebaldi Katharinec Hayhoe Julie M Arblaster Gerald A Meehl |
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| Institution: | (1) Institute for the Study of Society and Environment, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), PO BOX 3000, Boulder, CO 80301, USA;(2) Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA;(3) Department of Geosciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, USA;(4) Climate and Global Dynamics Division, NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA;(5) Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Australia |
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| Abstract: | Projections of changes in climate extremes are critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and
natural systems. Modeling advances now provide the opportunity of utilizing global general circulation models (GCMs) for projections
of extreme temperature and precipitation indicators. We analyze historical and future simulations of ten such indicators as
derived from an ensemble of 9 GCMs contributing to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC-AR4), under a range of emissions scenarios. Our focus is on the consensus from the GCM ensemble, in terms of
direction and significance of the changes, at the global average and geographical scale. The climate extremes described by
the ten indices range from heat-wave frequency to frost-day occurrence, from dry-spell length to heavy rainfall amounts. Historical
trends generally agree with previous observational studies, providing a basic sense of reliability for the GCM simulations.
Individual model projections for the 21st century across the three scenarios examined are in agreement in showing greater
temperature extremes consistent with a warmer climate. For any specific temperature index, minor differences appear in the
spatial distribution of the changes across models and across scenarios, while substantial differences appear in the relative
magnitude of the trends under different emissions rates. Depictions of a wetter world and greater precipitation intensity
emerge unequivocally in the global averages of most of the precipitation indices. However, consensus and significance are
less strong when regional patterns are considered. This analysis provides a first overview of projected changes in climate
extremes from the IPCC-AR4 model ensemble, and has significant implications with regard to climate projections for impact
assessments.
An erratum to this article is available at .
An erratum to this article can be found at |
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