| 北京地区突发性地质灾害危险度评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵忠海.北京地区突发性地质灾害危险度评价[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2009,20(3):39-44. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵忠海 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京市地质研究所,北京,100011 |
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| 摘 要： | 北京地区地质构造条件复杂，新构造活动频繁，人为活动剧烈，故地质灾害较为发育。主要的突发性地质灾害有泥石流、采空塌陷、崩塌以及地裂缝等。本文在北京市各区县地质灾害调查与区划工作的基础上，对北京地区的突发性地质灾害的发育情况进行了深入调查和分析。采用袭扰系数法，对突发性地质灾害的易发程度进行了综合评价。采用模糊综合评判模型，对影响地质灾害演变趋势的降雨条件、人类工程活动、地震活动以及区域岩组结构等因素进行了综合评判。并在此基础上．对突发性地质灾害的危险度进行了评价和预测，将北京地区划分出了地质灾害高风险区、地质灾害中风险区及地质灾害低风险区。
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| 关 键 词： | 突发性地质灾害 袭扰系数法 模糊综合评判模型 危险度 评价 |
RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE UNEXPECTED GEOLOGICAL DISASTERS IN BEIJING |
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| ZHAO Zhong-hai.RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE UNEXPECTED GEOLOGICAL DISASTERS IN BEIJING[J].Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation,2009,20(3):39-44. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Zhong-hai |
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| Institution: | ZHAO Zhong-hai (Geological Institute of Beijing, Beijing 100011,China) |
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| Abstract: | There are many geological disasters in Beijing areas caused by the complex geological structure, frequent neotectonic activity and the intense human activities. The main unexpected geological disasters include the debris flow, mined-out collapse, collapse, landslide and ground cracks. Based on the investigation and division of geological disasters in counties, the paper carefully investigated and analyzed the development of the unexpected geological disasters in Beijing. By the harassment factor method, the paper comprehensively evaluated the unexpected geological hazards susceptibility degree; by the fuzzy message model, we comprehensively evaluated the rainfall, human engineering activities, earthquake and rock structure which are impacting on the trends in the evolution of geological hazards. Based on the result acquired by evaluation of susceptibility degree and fuzzy message, the geological hazards is divided into four types, which are extreme high susceptibility, high susceptibility, mid-susceptibility and low susceptibility. |
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| Keywords: | unexpected geological disasters harassment factor method fuzzy message model Risk assessment |
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