Stochastic-fuzzy multi criteria decision making for robust water resources management |
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| Authors: | Mahdi Zarghami Ferenc Szidarovszky |
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| Institution: | (1) Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz, 51664 Tabriz, Iran;(2) Systems and Industrial Engineering Department, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721-0020, USA |
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| Abstract: | All realistic Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problems in water resources management face various kinds of uncertainty.
In this study the evaluations of the alternatives with respect to the criteria will be assumed to be stochastic. Fuzzy linguistic
quantifiers will be used to obtain the uncertain optimism degree of the Decision Maker (DM). A new approach for stochastic-fuzzy
modeling of MCDM problems will be then introduced by merging the stochastic and fuzzy approaches into the Ordered Weighted
Averaging (OWA) operator. The results of the new approach, entitled SFOWA, give the expected value and the variance of the
combined goodness measure for each alternative, which are essential for robust decision making. In order to combine these
two characteristics, a composite goodness measure will be defined. By using this measure the model will give more sensitive
decisions to the stakeholders whose optimism degrees are different than that of the decision maker. The methodology will be
illustrated by using a water resources management problem in the Central Tisza River in Hungary. Finally, SFOWA will be compared
to other methods known from the literature to show its suitability for MCDM problems under uncertainty. |
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| Keywords: | Multi criteria decision making Water resources management Ordered weighted averaging Stochastic simulation Fuzzy linguistic quantifiers Robust decisions |
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