| Interrelation between seismicity parameters and delimiting potential seismic sources in a seismic statistical region and its influence on seismic risk estimation |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄玮琼 吴宣 |
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| 作者单位： | Institute of Geophysics，China Earthquake Administration，Beijing 100081，China，Institute of Geophysics，China Earthquake Administration，Beijing 100081，China |
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| 基金项目： | Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (103051). |
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| 摘 要： | In the paper, we have discovered the abnormal area distribution features of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty with different probabilities of exceedance in 50 years within the range of 100°～120°E,29°～42°N for the purpose to solve the problem that abnormal areas of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainties emerge in a certain cities and towns caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region in an inhomogeneous distribution model that considers tempo-spatial nonuniformity of seismic activity. And we have also approached the interrelation between the risk estimation uncertainty of a site caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region and the delimitation of potential sources, as well as the reasons for forming abnormal areas. The results from the research indicate that the seismicity parameter uncertainty has unequal influence on the uncertainty of risk estimation at each site in a statistical region in the inhomogeneous distribution model, which relates to the scheme for delimiting potential sources. Abnormal areas of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty often emerge in the potential sources of Mu≥8 (Mu is upper limit of a potential source) and their vicinity. However, this kind of influence is equal in the homogeneous distribution model. The uncertainty of risk estimation of each site depends on its seat. Generally speaking, the sites located in the middle part of a statistical region are only related to the seismicity parameter uncertainty of the region, while the sites situated in or near the juncture of two or three statistical regions might be subject to the synthetic influences of seismicity parameter uncertainties of several statistical regions.
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| 收稿时间： | 10 June 2004 |
| 修稿时间： | 6 December 2004 |
Interrelation between seismicity parameters and delimiting potential seismic sources in a seismic statistical region and its influence on seismic risk estimation |
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| HUANG Wei-qiong,WU Xuan.Interrelation between seismicity parameters and delimiting potential seismic sources in a seismic statistical region and its influence on seismic risk estimation[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition),2005,18(4):435-440. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Wei-qiong WU Xuan |
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| Institution: | Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | In the paper, we have discovered the abnormal area distribution features of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter
uncertainty with different probabilities of exceedance in 50 years within the range of 100°–120°E, 29°–42°N for the purpose
to solve the problem that abnormal areas of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainties emerge in a
certain cities and towns caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region in an inhomogeneous distribution
model that considers tempo-spatial nonuniformity of seismic activity. And we have also approached the interrelation between
the risk estimation uncertainty of a site caused by seismicity parameter uncertainty in a seismic statistical region and the
delimitation of potential sources, as well as the reasons for forming abnormal areas. The results from the research indicate
that the seismicity parameter uncertainty has unequal influence on the uncertainty of risk estimation at each site in a statistical
region in the inhomogeneous distribution model, which relates to the scheme for delimiting potential sources. Abnormal areas
of maximum variation values of ground motion parameter uncertainty often emerge in the potential sources of M
u≥8 (M
u is upper limit of a potential source) and their vicinity. However, this kind of influence is equal in the homogeneous distribution
model. The uncertainty of risk estimation of each site depends on its seat. Generally speaking, the sites located in the middle
part of a statistical region are only related to the seismicity parameter uncertainty of the region, while the sites situated
in or near the juncture of two or three statistical regions might be subject to the synthetic influences of seismicity parameter
uncertainties of several statistical regions.
Foundation item: Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (103051).
Contribution No. 05FE3017, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration. |
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| Keywords: | seismic statistical region seismicity parameter potential source abnormal area isograms interrelation |
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