| 北京地面气温可预报性及缺测资料恢复的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄嘉佑.北京地面气温可预报性及缺测资料恢复的研究[J].气象学报,1995,53(2):211-216. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄嘉佑 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京大学地球物理系 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用１９５１－１９９０年期间北京地面气温资料作未来气温预测可预报性及缺测气温资料恢复的研究，对单月序列使用自回归、选阶自回归、逐步回归和预测残差最小逐步回归及对多月序列使用后两种模型等６种方案进行试验。结果表明，多月序列使用残差最小逐步回归模型有最好的可预报性，且预报方程具有较高的稳定性。本文使用该方案还对１８４１－１９５０年期间的缺测气温资料进行恢复。
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| 关 键 词： | 气温，可预报性，资料恢复，残差最小逐步回归 |
| 收稿时间： | 1993/10/4 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 1994/3/10 0:00:00 |
A STUDY OF PREDICTIVITY AND RECONSTRUCTION FOR MISSING RECORDS FOR TEMPERATURE IN BEIJING |
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| Huang Jiayou.A STUDY OF PREDICTIVITY AND RECONSTRUCTION FOR MISSING RECORDS FOR TEMPERATURE IN BEIJING[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1995,53(2):211-216. |
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| Authors: | Huang Jiayou |
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| Institution: | Department of Geophysis, Peking University 100871 |
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| Abstract: | sing the data of temperature in Beijing during the period of 1951-1990, the predictivity and reconstruction for missing records is investigated. the prediction equations are built by six statistical models: autoregression. autoregression for selecive order, stepwise regression and stepwise regression with minimum of forecast error for uni-month series, and the later two models for multi-month series. The results show that the model of stepwise regression with minimum of forecast error has the best predictivity in all of the models. The reconstruction for missing records during 1841-1950 for temperature in Beijing has been completed using the model of stepwise regression with minimum of forecast error. |
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| Keywords: | Temperature Predictivity Reconstruction stepwise Regression with minimum of forecast error |
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