| 深层地温变化规律及在汛期气候预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 张红英,张磊,杨建民,李鸿飞,吴素芬.深层地温变化规律及在汛期气候预测中的应用[J].山西气象,2009(1):25-27. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张红英 张磊 杨建民 李鸿飞 吴素芬 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]山西省长治市气象局,山西长治046000 [2]山西省长子县气象局,山西长子046000 [3]山西省长治县气象局,山西长治046000 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1980年以来不同深度地温资料，研究分析历年的月、季、年度变化特征。并统计分析了地温与汛期降水和气温的相关关系，选用显著相关因子建立汛期总降水量、汛期平均气温、各月降水量及各月平均气温的最优子集回归方程。经检验，不仅其历史拟合率比较高，而且对2002年-2008年的试预报也取得了较好的效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 深层地温 汛期旱涝趋势 最优子集回归 |
Application of Deep Soil Temperature Changing In Weather Forecasting During Flood Period |
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| Zhang Hongying,Zhang Lei,Yang Jianmin,Li HongFei,Wu Sufen.Application of Deep Soil Temperature Changing In Weather Forecasting During Flood Period[J].Shanxi Meteorological Quarterly,2009(1):25-27. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Hongying Zhang Lei Yang Jianmin Li HongFei Wu Sufen |
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| Institution: | Zhang Hongying, Zhang Lei, Yang Jianmin, Li HongFei, Wu Sufen (1. Chanzhi Meterology Bureau of Shanxi Province, Changzhi, Shanxi, 046000; 2. Zhangzi County Meteorology Bureau of Shanxi Province, Zhangzi, Shanxi, 046000; 3. Chanzhi County Meteorology Bureau of Shanxi Province, Changzhi, Shanxi, 046000) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data of soil temperature 1980 to present, the changing of month, quarter and annual in the characteristics of soil temperature was researched and analyzed. At seam time, the statistical analysis was done on the relationship between soil temperature and the precipitation and air temperature during flood season. The regression equation of the optimal subset of the total precipitation and average air temperature during flood season and average precipitation and average air temperature of each month was established through choosing significant correlation factor. After testing, not only fitting the rate of its history is relatively high, but also for the years 2002 -2008 the trial has also been made better forecasting results. |
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| Keywords: | Deep soil temperature Trend of drought and waterlogging during flood period Optimal subsetregression |
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