A Simulation of Historic Hydrology and Salinity in Everglades National Park: Coupling Paleoecologic Assemblage Data with Regression Models |
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| Authors: | III" target="_blank">Frank E MarshallIII G Lynn Wingard Patrick Pitts |
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| Institution: | (1) Cetacean Logic Foundation, Inc., 109 Esther Street, New Smyrna Beach, FL 32169, USA;(2) U. S. Geological Survey, MS 926A National Center, Reston, VA 20192, USA;(3) U. S. Fish & Wildlife Service, 1339 20th Street, Vero Beach, FL 32960, USA |
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| Abstract: | Restoration of Florida’s Everglades requires scientifically supportable hydrologic targets. This study establishes a restoration
baseline by developing a method to simulate hydrologic and salinity conditions prior to anthropogenic changes. The method
couples paleoecologic data on long-term historic ecosystem conditions with statistical models derived from observed meteorologic
and hydrologic data that provide seasonal and annual variation. Results indicate that pre-drainage freshwater levels and hydroperiods
in major sloughs of the Everglades were about 0.15 m higher and two to four times greater, respectively, on average compared
to today’s values. Pre-drainage freshwater delivered to the wetlands and estuaries is estimated to be 2.5 to four times greater
than the modern-day flow, and the largest deficit is during the dry season. In Florida Bay, salinity has increased between
5.3 and 20.1 with the largest differences in the areas near freshwater outflow points. These results suggest that additional
freshwater flows to the Everglades are needed for restoration of the freshwater marshes of the Everglades and estuarine environment
of Florida Bay, particularly near the end of the dry season. |
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