| 气候变化对延伸期预报的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 蔡芗宁,马杰,刘晓波,关月.气候变化对延伸期预报的影响[J].新疆气象,2024,18(1):12-19. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蔡芗宁 马杰 刘晓波 关月 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象中心,国家气象中心,国家气象中心,国家气象中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 气候变化对全球生态环境、人类生产生活有着重大影响。当前的预报预测业务已经并正继续深受气候变化的影响,而且未来这种趋势将会不断加剧。延伸期预报,作为无缝隙预报预测体系中至关重要的一环,连接着天气预报和短期气候预测,将面临怎样的挑战？为此,本文从综述国内外延伸期预报现状入手,分析了气候变化对我国延伸期预报业务的影响,并结合全球气候变化导致的日益增多的极端天气事件、大气环流模态可预报性变化等方面,展望了未来延伸期预报业务发展的新动向及可能面临的主要挑战,并提出了适应气候变化的应对措施和建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 延伸期预报 可预报性 极端天气 |
| 收稿时间： | 2023/2/28 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2023/7/1 0:00:00 |
Impact of climate change on extended range forecast |
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| Institution: | National Meteological centre,, |
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| Abstract: | Climate change has a major impact on the global ecological environment and human production and living. The current forecast system has been and continues to be deeply affected by climate change, which will continue to be enhanced in the future. The extended range forecast is a vital part of seamless forecast system, linking to weather forecast and short-term climate prediction. What challenges will be faced? This study firstly review the status quo of extended range forecast and analyze the impact of climate change on operational extend range forecast. Then combining the increasing extreme weather events and the variability of predictability for certain atmospheric circulation modes caused by global warming, we explain the main challenges faced by operational extended forecast, and give some suggestions for countermeasures in adapting to climate change. Finally, this study looks forward to the new development of the recent extended forecast. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change Extended range forecast Predictability Extreme weather |
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