A possible warning sign of major earthquake through observations of astronomical time and latitude |
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| Authors: | Yan-ben Han Jing Tian Hong-rong Du |
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| Institution: | 1. Beijing Astronomical Observatory, Academia Sinica, Beijing, People's Republic of China
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| Abstract: | On July 28, 1976, a major earthquake (M=7.9) occurred in the Tangshan region of China. After the earthquake, it was found that astronomical time-latitude anomalies were observed preceeding the occurrence of the earthquake. These observations had been obtained on the Astrolabe of the Beijing Astronomical Observatory and the VZT of Tianjin Latitide Station, which are just located around the epicentre. The anomalies were in the analyses of the time and latitude residuals, and there are more examples verifying these phenomena. However, all those examples were found in post-earthquake analyses. In this paper we discuss the possibility of earthquake prediction and forecast from the rediduals of astronomical time-latitude. For example, series of the five-day means are analyzed. The observations were supposed to be terminated two weeks before the earthquake, and the data are then analyzed a year backward. After removing their averages, the standard deviations are calculated of these series are calculation. Eight earthquakes were chosen as the events to be examined, (see Table). Most of the related instruments obtained excellent observations. The results are shown in the Figure. It is evident that abnormal peaks of RT and RF appeared before each earthquake. Thus we may conclude the followings: - Under the normal observation conditions, one high predision instruments could inform about a major earthquake a few weeks or a few days before it occurrs.
- The astronomical observations are seriously affected by the weather and observers and so they are some what uncertain.
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