| 北京地区主要传染病与气象条件关系的探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭文利,赵新平,轩春怡,谢学勤.北京地区主要传染病与气象条件关系的探讨[J].气候与环境研究,2001,6(3):368-370. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭文利 赵新平 轩春怡 谢学勤 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京市卫生防疫站 |
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| 摘 要： | 对肝炎、痢疾、猩红热的发病率与气象要素的相关分析表明:肝炎月发病率与前第2个月的月平均温度、月平均最高温度、月平均最低温度呈负相关;痢疾月发病率与当月的月平均最高温度、月平均温度呈正相关;猩红热月发病人数与前第5个月的月平均相对湿度、月平均风速呈负相关.建立了肝炎、痢疾月发病率及猩红热月发病人数与气象要素的回归方程,因此,可根据气象要素的预报预测主要传染病的发病趋势.
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| 关 键 词： | 传染病 气象条件 逐步回归 |
| 修稿时间： | 1999年11月2日 |
The Discussion of the Relation between Major Infections and Weather Conditions in Beijing |
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| Guo Wenli,Zhao Xinping,Xuan Chunyi and Xie Xueqin.The Discussion of the Relation between Major Infections and Weather Conditions in Beijing[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2001,6(3):368-370. |
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| Authors: | Guo Wenli Zhao Xinping Xuan Chunyi and Xie Xueqin |
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| Abstract: | Based on the correlation analysis of the infections for example hepatitis, dysentery and scarlet fever, and weather conditions, it shows that monthly incidence of hepatitis are in inverse correla- tion with monthly mean temperature, monthly mean maximum temperature and monthly mean mini- mum temperature of two months ago, and monthly incidence of dysentery are in positive correlation with current monthly mean maximum temperature and monthly mean tempreature, and monthly the number of scarlet fever are in inverse correlation with monthly mean relative humidity and monthly mean speed of wind of five months ago. A equation of successive regression is built to predict the trend of major infections by the prediction of weather conditions in the future. |
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| Keywords: | infection weather condition successive regression |
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